Observed and Future Spatiotemporal Changes of Rainfall Extreme Characteristics and Their Dynamic Driver in June-August Season over Africa

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country instituteen
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationEthiopian Meteorological Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationNanjing University of Information Science & Technologyen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationNORCE Norwegian Research Center, Bjerknes Center for Climate Researchen
cg.contributor.donorWorld Banken
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.creator.identifierAsaminew Teshome: 0000-0002-6457-1385
cg.creator.identifierJie Zhang: 0000-0002-2190-5883
cg.creator.identifierTeferi Demissie: 0000-0002-0228-1972
cg.creator.identifierQianrong Ma: 0000-0001-7789-5293
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2022.122022en
cg.issn2160-0414en
cg.issue2en
cg.journalAtmospheric and Climate Sciencesen
cg.subject.impactAreaClimate adaptation and mitigation
cg.subject.sdgSDG 2 - Zero hungeren
cg.subject.sdgSDG 13 - Climate actionen
cg.volume12en
dc.contributor.authorTeshome, Asaminewen
dc.contributor.authorJie Zhangen
dc.contributor.authorDemissie, Teferi Dejeneen
dc.contributor.authorQianrong Maen
dc.date.accessioned2022-04-08T14:12:27Zen
dc.date.available2022-04-08T14:12:27Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/119292
dc.titleObserved and Future Spatiotemporal Changes of Rainfall Extreme Characteristics and Their Dynamic Driver in June-August Season over Africaen
dcterms.abstractClimate change has increased extreme events over globe and the most robust occurrences of concurrent drought and floods have become more common in Africa. This study focuses on the observed and projected analysis of rainfall extremes of consecutive dry day (CDD) and maximum monthly five day precipitation (RX5day) from Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) in June-August season over Africa. The daily CORDEX Africa, reanalysis and CRU datasets were analyzed for extreme trends under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the periods of 1980 to 2100. The spatiotemporal variability, trend, and magnitude of JJA seasonal rainfall performance exhibits a significant decreasing tendency over Eastern Africa compared to West Africa. The observed results of consecutive dry day (CDD) reveal that increasing trend and moreover RX5day shows that promising positive trend. Both rainfall extremes are influenced by the combined effect of large scale indexes and appear to be correlated negatively and positively with ENSO, NAO and AO. The CORDEX ensemble mean projections of JJA seasonal rainfall performance show a widespread significant change and the first mode of EOF depicts that 13.8% and 24.9% under the RCP4.5 and the highest variability is under RCP8.5 scenario. The projected CDD extreme exhibit an increasing trend in the coming periods and the percentage change revealed that increasing from 25.11%, 28.02% over West and 26.49%, 31.66% East Africa under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. This situation will exacerbate increasing of frequent and intensified drought extremes over Africa. Additionally, the future RX5day indicated that mixed trend and revealed that increasing 3.72%, 2.54% over West and decreases -16.12%, -22.47% over East Africa under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. Generally, rainfall extremes of CDD are projected to increase and RX5day shows a mixed trend in the coming periods over Africa and calls for further verification by using high resolution datasets.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceAcademicsen
dcterms.audienceCGIARen
dcterms.audiencePolicy Makersen
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.bibliographicCitationTeshome A, Zhang J, Demissie T, Ma, Q. 2022. Observed and Future Spatiotemporal Changes of Rainfall Extreme Characteristics and Their Dynamic Driver in June-August Season over Africa. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 12(2):358-382.en
dcterms.extent358-382en
dcterms.issued2022
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherScientific Research Publishing, Inc.en
dcterms.subjectextremesen
dcterms.subjectagricultureen
dcterms.subjectclimate-smart agricultureen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectrainfallen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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