AICCRA Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/113195

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 79

Impact of climate change on the productivity and adaptation of Ethiopia's Bonga and Menz sheep breeds
(Journal Article, 2025-02) Tesema, Zeleke; Getachew, Tesfaye; Belay, Berhanu; Amha, Yosef; Rekik, Mourad; Rischkowsky, Barbara A.; Besufkad, Shanbel; Abate, Zelalem; Bekele, Tamrat; Demissie, Teferi; Solomon, Dawit; Haile, Aynalem
This study aimed to derive novel phenotypes of sheep resilience and response to climate change, to estimate genetic parameters for novel phenotypes, and to evaluate the genetic correlation of resilience indicator traits with economically important traits. This study used the 14 years (2009–2022) of productive, reproductive, pedigree, and climate data to derive resilience and stability phenotypes using a random regression model fitting to the reaction norm function and genetic parameter estimates were estimated from a linear mixed model. The changes in productive and reproductive performance of both sheep breeds in response to environmental descriptors ((temperature-humidity index (THI) and rainfall (RF)) were found to be minimal and not significantly (P > 0.05) different from zero, suggesting that most of these traits showed stable performance independent of THI and RF. The direct heritability (h2) estimate (0.101–0.163) for the resilience of Bonga sheep in terms of weight gain, Kleiber ratio (KR), total lamb birth weight, and annual reproduction rate (ARR) indicated the presence of substantial genetic variance. Nevertheless, the h2 for resilience and stability phenotypes of Bonga sheep in terms of other reproductive traits were found to be low (0.0001 – 0.098). The highest h2 for resilience of Menz sheep was observed for total lamb weaning weight (0.416), followed by body weight (0.145), KR (0.114), and ARR (0.110). The genetic progress of THI-based resilience was favorable for most of the traits of Bonga sheep. The genetic trend for rainfall-based resilience for most productive and reproductive traits of Menz sheep was genetically decreasing slightly. In conclusion, the influence of heat stress and rainfall on the performance of both sheep breeds is minimal. But different lambs and ewes react differently to a changing climate, and there is some level of genetic contribution to the variability of reaction for some traits. This suggests the possibility of improving the resilience of sheep to weather variation through within-breed selection to sustain these sheep breeds' optimal production and reproduction performances in changing climate conditions, although the influence is minimal. Besides, the contribution of the environment to phenotypic variation of resilience and stability phenotypes was high for most traits, which calls for management intervention to enhance sheep resilience to climate change.
Status and determinants of multi-dimensional poverty in Wolaita Sodo Town, southern Ethiopia
(Journal Article, 2025-03) Esrael, Eshetu; Worku, Asrat; Cucchi, Carlo; Belay, Abrham; Recha, John W.M.; Tafesse, Alula
Multi-dimensional poverty remains a staggering problem in Ethiopia, especially among urban households. Despite its widespread recognition, there is a dearth of comprehensive studies that specifically examine the status and determinants of multi-dimensional poverty, especially in urban settings. This study focused on an in-depth examination of the status and determinants of multi-dimensional poverty among urban households in Wolaita Sodo, Ethiopia. Cross-sectional data was collected from 240 randomly selected urban households. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression econometric models were utilized to analyze the data. More than half of the sampled respondents are classified as multi-dimensionally poor. The intensity of poverty was measured at 65.1 %, while the adjusted headcount ratio stood at 33.95 %. In terms of dimensions, the living standards dimension emerged as the primary contributor to overall multidimensional poverty, accounting for 40.3 % of the total followed by the education dimension (32.3 %) and the health dimension (26.5 %). Among the seven indicators used in the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), school attendance (17.1 %) and food insufficiency (22.4 %) indicators made the highest relative contributions to the overall multidimensional poverty index. The remittance (P < 0.01), employment status (P < 0.01), age of household head (P < 0.10), household size (P < 0.01), and expenditure (P < 0.01) significantly influence multidimensional poverty. To alleviate the elevated levels of multidimensional poverty in the study area, it is advisable to target households with larger family members, target households with access to remittance, enhance access to quality education, support aged household heads and create conducive environment for investors to start medium- and large-scale industries for better employment opportunity.
Gender vulnerability assessment to inform gender-sensitive adaptation action: a case study in semi-arid areas of Mali
(Journal Article, 2024-07-11) Segnon, Alcade C.; Magassa, Mariame; Rêmilokoun Obossou, Esdras Abréwa; Partey, Samuel T.; Houessionon, Prosper; Zougmoré, Robert B.
Understanding the gender dimensions of vulnerability to climate change is crucial for designing effective gender-transformative climate actions. This is particularly crucial in the semi-arid regions of West Africa, a climate change “hotspot” where high dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods and limited adaptive capacity make agriculture and livelihoods highly vulnerable. In this study we combined semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with a systematic literature review to analyze gendered household vulnerability to climate change in Cinzana, a semi-arid area of Mali, and identify entry points for gender-transformative adaptation actions. The Livelihood Vulnerability assessment indicated that female-headed households were more vulnerable than male-headed households. Differential socio-demographic profiles, livelihood strategies, social networks, water and food and agricultural production systems were key drivers of the gendered vulnerability patterns. A systematic review of drivers of gendered vulnerability in Mali illustrated how socio-cultural norms and roles assigned to women, and limited women access to and control over productive resources and adaptation technologies make women more vulnerable to climatic and non-climatic risks. We highlight the need of gender transformative approaches to address the structural gender inequality and reduce vulnerability of female-headed households. We outline three pathways for reducing female-headed households’ vulnerability to climate change, including the promotion of gender-smart extension and climate advisory services and empowering women.
Exploring adaptation strategies for smallholder farmers in dryland farming systems and impact on pearl millet production under climate change in West Africa
(Journal Article, 2024-07-07) Akinsey, Folorunso M; Inoussa, Zagre; Faye, Aliou; Joseph, Jacob Emanuel; Worou, Nadine; Whitbread, Anthony
Understanding and identifying appropriate adaptation optons for cropping systems and management practices at spatial and temporal scales is an important prerequisite for scaling. Pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum (L) R. Br.) could be regarded as a risk-reducing measure crop under climate change when coupled with tactical agronomic management practices. In this study, we assess the impacts of adaptation strategies such as cultivar type, planting windows, and fertilizer strategies on pearl millet production under rainfed farming systems over Nigeria and Senegal using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. The impact of climate change on millet yield was evaluated using a validated APSIM-millet module that utilized yield data collected through participatory research and extension approach (PREA) in contrasting environments. The climate model projections for the mid-century period (2040–2069) were compared against a baseline period of 1980–2009 for both locations. During the simulation, two millet varieties (improved local and dual-purpose) with two sowing regimes were considered comparing traditional farmers’ sowing window (dry sowing) and agronomic sowing window (planting based on the onset of the rainfall) at three different fertilizer levels [low (23 kg N ha−1), medium (40.5 kg N ha−1), and high (68.5 kg N ha−1) respectively]. The performance of the APSIM-millet module was found to be satisfactory as indicated by the low Root Means Square Error (RMSE) and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) values. The range for grain yield was between 17.7% and 25.8%, while for AGB it was between 18.6% and 21.4%. The results showed that farmers’ sowing window simulated slightly higher grain yield than the agronomic sowing window for improved local millet cultivar indicating yield increased by 8–12%. However, the projected changes in the mid-century (2040–2069) resulted in a decline in yield against baseline climate for both varieties and sowing windows, indicating the negative impact of climate change (CC) on yield productivity. The comparison between dual-purpose millet and improved local millet indicates that disseminating the improved millet variety and implementing early sowing could be an effective adaptation strategy in reducing risks and losses caused by climate change. Similarly, low magnitude impacts simulated on grain yield (< −8% in Nigeria compared to > −8% in Senegal) even though both locations are in the same agroecological zone.
Spatio-Temporal Trends in Precipitation, Temperature, and Extremes: A Study of Malawi and Zambia (1981–2021)
(Journal Article, 2024-03) Demissie, Teferi; Gebrechorkos, Solomon H
Analyzing long-term climate changes is a prerequisite for identifying hotspot areas and developing site-specific adaptation measures. The current study focuses on assessing changes in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and potential evapotranspiration in Zambia and Malawi from 1981 to 2021. High-resolution precipitation and temperature datasets are used, namely, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (0.05◦) and Multi-Source Weather (0.1◦). The Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s Slope methods are employed to assess the changes. The trend analysis shows a non-significant increase in annual precipitation in many parts of Zambia and Central Malawi. In Zambia and Malawi, the average annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures show a statistically significant increasing trend (up to 0.6 ◦C/decade). The change in precipitation during the major rainy seasons (December–April) shows a non-significant increasing trend (up to 3 mm/year) in a large part of Zambia and Central Malawi. However, Malawi and Northern Zambia show a non-significant decreasing trend (up to −5 mm/year). The change in December–April precipitation significantly correlates with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (Indian Ocean Dipole) in Southern (Northern) Zambia and Malawi. To minimize the impact of the observed changes, it is imperative to develop adaptation measures to foster sustainability in the region.
Spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture over Ethiopia and its teleconnections with remote and local drivers
(Journal Article, 2024-04-20) Jimma, Tamirat B; Demissie, Teferi; Diro, Gulilat T; Ture, Kassahun; Terefe, Tadesse; Solomon, Dawit
Soil moisture is one of the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of Ethiopian soil moisture (SM) has been characterized, and its local and remote influential driving factors are investigated. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and KMeans clustering algorithm have been employed to classify the large domain into homogeneous zones. Complex maximum covariance analysis (CMCA) is applied to evaluate the covariability between SM and selected local and remote variables such as rainfall (RF), evapotranspiration (ET), and sea surface temperature (SST). Inter-comparison among SM datasets highlight that the FLDAS dataset better depicts the country’s SM spatial and temporal distribution (i.e., a correlation coefficient, with observations). Results also indicate that regions located in northeastern Ethiopia are drier irrespective of the season (JJAS, MAM, and OND) considered. In contrast, the western part of the country consistently depicted a wetter condition in all seasons. During summer (JJAS), the soil moisture variability is characterized by a strong east–west spatial contrast. The highest and lowest soil moisture values were observed across the country’s central western and eastern parts, respectively. Furthermore, analyses indicate that interannual variability of SM is dictated substantially by RF, though the impact on some regions is weaker. It is also found that ET likely drives the SM in the eastern part of Ethiopia due to a higher atmospheric moisture demand that ultimately invokes changes in surface humidity and rainfall. A composite analysis based on the extreme five wettest and driest SM years revealed a similar spatial distribution of wet SM with positive anomalies of RF across the country and ET over the southern regions. Remote SSTs are also found to have a significant influence on SM distribution. In particular, equatorial central Pacific and western Indian oceans SST anomalies are predominant factors for spatiotemporal SM variations over the country. Major global oceanic indices: Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific warm pool (PACWARMPOOL), and Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO) are found to be closely associated with the SM anomalies in various parts of the country. The associationship between these remote SST anomalies and local soil moisture is via large-scale atmospheric circulations that are linked to regional factors such as precipitation and temperature anomalies.
Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: Can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply–demand gap?
(Journal Article, 2024-04-26) Carr, Tony W.; Addo, Felicity; Palazzo, Amanda; Havlik, Petr; Pérez-Guzmán, Katya; Ali, Zakari; Green, Rosemary; Hadida, Genevieve; Segnon, Alcade C.; Zougmoré, Robert; Scheelbeek, Pauline
With rising demand for food and the threats posed by climate change, The Gambia faces significant challenges in ensuring sufficient and nutritious food for its population. To address these challenges, there is a need to increase domestic food production while limiting deforestation and land degradation. In this study, we modified the FABLE Calculator, a food and land-use system model, to focus on The Gambia to simulate scenarios for future food demand and increasing domestic food production. We considered the impacts of climate change on crops, the adoption of climate change adaptation techniques, as well as the potential of enhanced fertiliser use and irrigation to boost crop productivity, and assessed whether these measures would be sufficient to meet the projected increase in food demand. Our results indicate that domestic food production on existing cropland will not be sufficient to meet national food demand by 2050, leading to a significant supply–demand gap. However, investments in fertiliser availability and the development of sustainable irrigation infrastructure, coupled with climate change adaptation strategies like the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties and optimised planting dates, could halve this gap. Addressing the remaining gap will require additional strategies, such as increasing imports, expanding cropland, or prioritising the production of domestic food crops over export crops. Given the critical role imports play in The Gambia’s food supply, it is essential to ensure a robust flow of food imports by diversifying partners and addressing regional trade barriers. Our study highlights the urgent need for sustained investment and policy support to enhance domestic food production and food imports to secure sufficient and healthy food supplies amidst growing demand and climate change challenges.
Strengthening Africa’s climate-smart agriculture and food systems through enhanced policy coherence and coordinated action
(Journal Article, 2024-03-18) Chevallier, Romy
Africa’s climate, food and agricultural policy agendas are often fragmented and yet their integration is a key requirement for enhancing the continent’s resilience and development outcomes. This research article explores actions to strengthen and better align Africa’s climate adaptation and mitigation responses in the agricultural sector. These include recommendations to promote the coherence of Africa’s climate-smart agriculture policy frameworks at numerous levels; to strengthen broad-based stakeholder engagement and inclusion; to promote institutional coordination, monitoring, evaluation and learning; and importantly, to enhance policy implementation.
Linking science with policy: The importance of incorporating clear roles for knowledge brokers into research-for development organizations
(Journal Article, 2024-02-13) Cramer, Laura K.
Agriculture and food systems research and international development work will not proceed at the necessary speed without clear attention to the role of knowledge brokers within science-policy-practice interfaces. For research to be taken up and incorporated in policy frameworks, knowledge brokering is essential. Scaling of research for development findings will happen through other impact pathways as well, such as development of business models with the private sector, but development and implementation of robust and coherent policies informed by credible evidence is necessary for institutionalizing the work of agriculture and food systems research. Such policies are needed at multiple levels, and knowledge brokers are needed at these different levels as well. Examples of the importance of knowledge brokers in agricultural research for development from the livestock sector and its interaction with the climate change arena are used to illustrate this call for more attention to knowledge brokering.
From gender gaps to gender-transformative climate-smart agriculture
(Journal Article, 2024-04) Huyer, Sophia; Loboguerrero Rodriguez, Ana María; Chanana, Nitya; Spellman, Olga
To date, much of the research on the nexus between gender and climate has emphasized the negative impacts on women, in terms of their increased vulnerability to climate-related shocks. Women in developing countries rely predominantly on natural resources for their farming activities, household needs, and caregiving roles. For many women in these contexts, access to important resources such as credit, information, extension and agricultural services, as well as training in technology, is largely limited due to social norms and stakeholder biases. This affects their agency at home and within their communities 1••, 2•, 3••, 4. Agricultural intervention approaches have largely ignored women as agents of change [5••] as well as their capacity for — and learning in relation to — climate change adaptation, so that the root causes underpinning climate-related vulnerability persist 6, 7•, 8••. More effort is needed at the R&D-policy interface [9] to generate models that support and promote gender equity and equality in the context of the escalating climate crisis — especially when a global transformation is required to effectively strengthen food systems to respond to the impacts of climate change. If current gender and social inequality trends persist unchecked under climate change, gender gaps and existing inequalities will increase 5••, 10••, including those relating to agriculture and food security. This situation will curtail efforts in many regions to transform agriculture systems to deliver on Sustainable Development Goal targets 11, 12. We review the potential of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) to achieve gender equality and transformation outcomes that enable food system transformation for climate change resilience. This is done through an understanding of the linkages between climate-related vulnerabilities, gender equality, and social inclusion, and their interrelation with food system transformation 11, 13••. The section on Gender-driven gaps, constraints, climate-related vulnerability, and climate-risk perceptions presents the contribution of CSA toward gender equality, while also setting the background by examining the elements of gender, norms, productivity, and vulnerability that impede the application of CSA to reduce climate vulnerability. Section From gender gaps to gender-inclusive resilience highlights the contributions of CSA toward gender equality while also looking at R&D gaps that can provide further evidence for the potential of CSA to improve gender equality. Finally, Section From gender gaps to gender-transformative climate-smart agriculture discusses the approaches that can promote gender-transformative change at scale to build climate change resilience. The review recognizes that, while several definitions of CSA1 exist, the CSA concept evokes discussions that go far beyond a list of specific practices. The effective implementation of CSA practices is conceptually linked to social, economic, and political dimensions that create enabling environments in which institutions, policies, and finance are harnessed to transform agricultural systems 14, 15. These environments are affected by the differences in climate-linked vulnerabilities of women and men and their ability to derive benefits from CSA [13••]. For this reason, the review does not focus on specific CSA practices but rather on the CSA concept and how it can or cannot support gender equality and transformation outcomes to strengthen food system resilience
Value chain engagement for sustainable and inclusive scaling of climate-smart agriculture and climate information services: Cases from Zambia
(Manuscript-unpublished, 2023-12) Minh, Thai Thi; Jacobs-Mata, Inga; Ngwira, Amos; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Homann-Kee, Sabine; Mapedza, Everisto D.; Dahl, Hauke; Chikoye, David; Mudege, Netsayi N.
A participatory framework for prioritizing climate-smart agriculture innovations in rice-based systems: A case study of Mali
(Journal Article, 2024-03) Dossou-Yovo, Eliott Ronald; Arouna, Aminou; Benfica, Rui; Mujawamariyac, Gaudiose; Yossad, Rodrigue
Alleviating the climate-related constraints faced by agri-food systems in sub-Saharan Africa requires an accelerated adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) innovations by farmers. However, little is known about the best-bet (most appropriate) CSA innovations, and the enabling conditions for their widespread adoption in a given biophysical and socioeconomic context. The objectives of this study were to identify the best-bet CSA innovations and the barriers, incentive mechanisms, and roles of institutions in widespread adoption in the four rice growing environments in Mali (irrigated lowlands, rainfed lowlands, rainfed uplands, and submergence systems). Data were collected from stakeholder’s consultations to assess CSA innovations using four climate-smart performance indicators (productivity, income, adaptation, and mitigation) and four implementation feasibility indicators (technology cost, technical feasibility, gender inclusivity, and market demand). The best-bet CSA innovations included drought- and submergence-tolerant rice varieties, perennial rice, and rice-vegetable rotation in irrigated lowlands; drought-tolerant rice varieties, rice-tuber, rice-vegetable, and rice-legume rotations in rainfed lowlands; drought-tolerant rice varieties and mulching in rainfed uplands; and submergence-tolerant rice varieties, perennial rice, and integrated rice-fish in submergence systems. The average perceived adoption level of CSA innovations by farmers in the rice-growing environments was low, ranging from 7 to 19% due to the lack of finance, technical knowledge, machinery, fertilizer, and quality seeds. Governments, farmers’ organizations, and research and academic institutions were identified as critical actors in the wide spread adoption of CSA innovations. The framework used in this study can be used to identify and invest into locally relevant best-bet CSA innovation packages.
Effect of urbanization on East African climate as simulated by coupled urban-climate model
(Journal Article, 2023-06-15) Zeleke, Tadesse T; Giorgi, Flippo; Diro, Gulilat T; Zaitchik, Benjamin; Giuliani, Graziano; Ayal, Desalegn; Ture, Kassahun; Workneh, Sintayehu; Demissie, Teferi Dejene
This study examines the effect of urbanization on climate variability over East Africa. Seasonal trend of rainfall and temperature was analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test and statistically significant rainfall trend is observed during spring (February-May) and summer (June-September) over northeast and spring/“bega”(October-January) seasons in southeastern regions of Ethiopia, thereby suggesting a seasonal shift of rainfall distribution. The temperature trend showed significant warming in the simulated field, except in central East Sudan, where there has been a significant decline. A numbers of idealized sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.6) to investigate the contribution of urbanization to the East African region climate variability and trend. Model assessment against observed climate variables showed good performance in the simulation of spatial and temporal variability of regional climate variables. The results of the sensitivity experiment by prescribing different urban environments (tall building district (TBD), high density (HD), medium density (MD) and original land use) for the surface scheme (CLM4.5) reveal statistically significant impacts of urbanized surfaces on surface temperatures and precipitation due to variations in energy budget, local circulation and disturbance of hydro meteorological variables. It is noted that TBD urban environment has a higher impact on the local climate than other urban environments. Patterns of seasonal rainfall variability simulated using artificially urbanized land cover suggests involvement of complex interactions and is less similar to the observed rainfall trend, while surface temperature variability is significantly affected by local land-cover change and is very similar to the observed surface temperature trend.
Human adaptation to climate change in the context of forests: a systematic review
(Journal Article, 2024) Paige Fischer, Alexandra; Aminur Rahman Shah, Mohammad; Segnon, Alcade Christel; Matavel, Custodio; Antwi-Agyei, Philip; Shang, Yuanyuan; Muir, Maegan; Kaufmann, Rachel; The Global Adaptation Mapping Team
We assessed how people adapt to climate change in the context of forests through a systematic review of the international empirical research literature. We found that drought, precipitation variability, extreme precipitation and flooding, and extreme heat were the climatic stressors to which responses were most frequently documented. Individuals and households received the most research attention, followed by national government, civil society, and local government. Europe and North America were the geographic foci of more research than other regions. Behavioral responses were more reported than technical and infrastructural responses and institutional responses. Within these types of responses, actors used a wide variety of practices such as replanting, altering species composition, and adopting or changing technology. Adaptation efforts in early planning and advanced implementation received some attention, but early implementation and expanding implementation were most reported. While connections between responses and risk reduction were discussed, there is limited evidence of risk reduction. Our review contributes to the scholarly and practical understanding of how people adapt to climate change in the context of forests. The review also identifies opportunities for future research on adaptation to other climatic stressors, such as wildfires and tree pests and pathogens, adaptation in other geographic areas, especially Oceania, and adaptation by actors beyond the individual and household level and through institutional adaptation efforts.
Impact of credit on household food security: The case of Omo microfinance institution in southern Ethiopia
(Journal Article, 2023-12-01) Boltana, Amanuel; Tafesse, Alula; Belay, Abrham; Recha, John W.M.; Osano, Philip M.
To effectively address the pressing issue of insufficient food production and limited purchasing power among rural farm households in Ethiopia, it is of utmost importance to empower them through comprehensive developmental mechanisms and evaluate the effectiveness of these activities. By providing financial services to smallscale farmers and entrepreneurs, Omo microfinance plays a vital role in empowering individuals and communities to improve their livelihoods and contribute to the overall food security of the nation. The study assessed the impact of credit utilization on household food security among rural borrowers in the Offa district of Southern Ethiopia. Through the implementation of a multi-stage sampling technique, a total of 352 credit users and nonuser groups were selected for rigorous analysis. Data collection was conducted via a semi-structured interview schedule. The Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method was used for data analysis. The compelling results of this study reveal the significant and positive role of credit intervention in enhancing household food security. Credit utilization has led to a remarkable increase in the average calorie intake per capita per day, amounting to 248.53 kcal/day. The finding of this paper provides a case study for policymakers to give more attention to creating an enabling environment for microfinance institutions to develop appropriate products and services for rural farming households to address food insecurity in Ethiopia.
Field experiences and lessons learned from applying participatory system dynamics modelling to sustainable water and agri-food systems
(Journal Article, 2023-12-09) Kotir, Julius H.; Jagustovic, Renata; Papachristos, George; Zougmore, Robert B.; Kessler, Aad; Reynolds, Martin; Ouedraogo, Mathieu; Ritsema, Coen J.; Aziz, Ammar Abdul; Johnstone, Ron
Achieving the objectives of sustainable development in water and agri-food systems requires the utilisation of decision-support tools in stakeholder-driven processes to construct and simulate various scenarios and evaluate the outcomes of associated policy interventions. While it is common practice to involve stakeholders in participatory modelling processes, their comprehensive documentation and the lessons learned remain scarce. In this paper, we share our experience of engaging stakeholders throughout the entire system dynamics modelling process. We draw on two projects implemented in the Volta River Basin, West Africa, to understand the dynamics of water and agri-food systems under changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. We outline eight key insights and lessons as practical guides derived from each stage of the participatory modelling process, including the pre-workshop stage, problem definition, model conceptualization, simulation model formulation, model testing and verification, and policy design and evaluation. Our findings demonstrate that stakeholders can actively contribute to all phases of the system dynamics modelling process, including parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, and numerical simulation experiments. However, we encountered notable challenges, including the time-intensive nature of the process, the struggle to reach a consensus on the modelled problem, and the difficulty of translating the conceptual model into a simulation model using stock and flow diagrams – all of which were addressed through a structured facilitation process. While the projects were anchored in the specific context of West Africa, the key lessons and insights highlighted have broader significance, particularly for researchers employing PSDM in regions characterised by multifaceted human-environmental systems and where stakeholder involvement is crucial for holistic understanding and effective policy interventions. This paper contributes practical guidance for future efforts with participatory modelling, particularly in regions worldwide grappling with sustainable development challenges in water and agri-food systems, and where stakeholder involvement is crucial for holistic understanding of the multiple challenges and for designing effective policy interventions.
Pathways to a healthy net-zero future: Report of the Lancet Pathfinder Commission
(Journal Article, 2023) Whitmee, Sarah; Green, Rosemary; Belesova, Kristine; Hassan, Syreen; Cuevas, Soledad; Murage, Peninah; Picetti, Roberto; Clercq-Roques, Romain; Murray, Kris; Falconer, Jane; Anton, Blanca; Reynolds, Tamzin; Waddington, Hugh Sharma; Hughes, Robert C.; Spadaro, Joseph; Jaber, Aimée Aguilar; Saheb, Yamina; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Cortés-Puch, Maria; Ebi, Kristie; Huxley, Rachel; Mazzucato, Mariana; Oni, Tolu; de Paula, Nicole; Peng, Gong; Revi, Aromar; Rockström, Johan; Srivastava, Leena; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Zougmoré, Robert B.; Phumaphi, Joy; Clark, Helen; Haines, Andy
Using homosoils to enrich sparse soil data infrastructure: An example from Mali
(Journal Article, 2023-04) Nenkam, Andree M.; Wadoux, Alexandre; Minasny, Budiman; McBratney, Alex; Sibiry Traoré, Pierre C.; Whitbread, Anthony M.
Many areas in the world suffer from relatively sparse soil data availability. This results in inefficient implementation of soil-related studies and inadequate recommendations for improving soil management strategies. Commonly, this problem is tackled by collecting new soil data to update legacy soil surveys. New soil data collection, however, is usually costly. In this paper, we demonstrate how to find homosoils with the objective of obtaining new soil data for a study area. Homosoils are soils that can be geographically distant but share similar soil-forming factors. We cluster the study area into homogenouse areas, and identify a homosoil to each area using distance metrics calculated in the character space spanned by the environmental covariates. In a case study in Mali, we found that large areas in India, Australia and America have similar soil-forming factors to the African Sahelian zone. We collected available soil data for these areas from the WoSIS database. Statistical analysis on the relationship between the homosoils corresponding to different areas of Mali and three soil properties (clay, sand, pH) displayed the unique variability captured by homosoils. The homosoils could explain 8% of the variation found in the soil datasets. There was a strong association between pH and homosoils corresponding to the semi-arid conditions and sedimentary parent material of Mali, whereas homosoils corresponding to other areas of Mali showed moderate association either with clay or sand. The location and spread of the group centroids were significantly different between depth-specific homosoils for the three soil properties. The approach developed in this paper shows the opportunity for identifying areas in the world with similar soils to populate areas with relatively low soil data density. The concept of homosoils is promising and we envision future applications such as transfer of soil models and agronomic experimental results between areas.
Harnessing indigenous knowledge and practices for effective adaptation in the Sahel
(Journal Article, 2023) Zougmoré, Robert B.; Segnon, Alcade Christel; Thornton, Philip K.
The Sahel region of West Africa has experienced some of the most severe multidecadal rainfall variability over the past 50 years. Based on recollections of the past and observations of the present, local communities in the Sahel have developed extensive knowledge and understanding of their environment and climate that enables them to harness ecosystem services to support their livelihoods and survive environmental changes. Recent literature indicated that farmers’ knowledge and perceptions of changes in the local climate are largely consistent with observed meteorological data, except for the more heterogeneous precipitation change. This understanding of changes in their environment combined with their indigenous knowledge can be particularly useful in data-sparse regions such as the Sahel. This review highlights the importance of indigenous knowledge in enabling effective adaptation in the Sahel and beyond. It outlines some future research avenues for fostering indigenous knowledge-based adaptation, including addressing barriers to mainstreaming of indigenous knowledge into climate research and policy.
Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro
(Journal Article, 2023-09) Semie, Addisu G; Diro, Gulilat T; Demissie, Teferi Dejene; Yigezu, Yonas M; Hailu, Binyam
Flash floods are increasingly frequent worldwide. Recent flooding in eastern Ethiopia resulted in casualties, destruction of property and interruptions of service. National flash flood forecasts made today primarily consider precipitation, putting less emphasis on surface processes. Enhancing accurate flash flood forecasts by accounting for surface processes and hydrological models together with a deeper understanding of heavy precipitation mechanisms is of paramount importance. To this end, an uncoupled WRF-Hydro model was calibrated for eastern Ethiopia to simulate extreme floods. Sensitivity analysis for August 2006 showed that infiltration runoff, hydraulic soil conductivity and saturated volumetric soil moisture with parameter values of 0.1, 1.5 and 1.0 produced realistic streamflow distribution. Extreme floods in March 2005 and April 2007 were further studied. The results showed that WRF-Hydro replicates temporal and spatial patterns well. Analysis using observational/reanalysis data revealed associated physical processes. Precipitation during these events exceeded long-term climatology and spanned wider areas in eastern Ethiopia. These heavy precipitation events are associated with strong upper-level westerly jet streams and rainfall-conducive circulation anomalies at lower levels. Positive outcomes from WRF-Hydro suggest operational implementation for flood monitoring and early warning systems in forecasting centers.

Browse

Recent Submissions