High-resolution climate change projections and their adaptation planning implications for small basins in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and the Occupied Palestinian Territories

Bergaoui, Karim; Belhaj Fraj, Makram; Abeyrathna, Wasudha Prabhodani; Fragaszy, Stephen Russell; Samarasekara, Vidhisha. 2024. High-resolution climate change projections and their adaptation planning implications for small basins in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and the Occupied Palestinian Territories. Report prepared by the Building Climate Resilience through Enhanced Water Security in MENA (Al Murunah) project. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 62p. [doi: https://doi.org/10.5337/2025.204]

This report collates and synthesizes the findings from comprehensive climate baseline assessments and bias-corrected and statistically downscaled climate projections for four distinct areas: Ras Baalbeck in Lebanon, Abu Al-Matamir in Egypt, Wadi Al-Seer in Jordan, and Wadi Al-Faria’a in the West Bank of the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT).

This study developed models to assess future projected climatological patterns, extreme events, and climate scenarios for these locations. Model outputs have a daily timestep and high spatial resolution (10x10 km). We developed the models using data from the Global Climate Monitoring Products and employing advanced techniques such as Bias Correction and Statistical Disaggregation (BCSD) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCMs).

Model outputs are available here: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/SCNQWS

The study focused on principal temperature and precipitation indicators of most immediate relevance for water and food security. The Al Murunah project is using the study’s outputs to inform implementation planning of resilient nature-based water solutions (RNBWS) in each area, as well as considerations for their application more widely.