Spatial analysis and risk mapping of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) in sub-Saharan Africa

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationFreie Universität Berlinen
cg.contributor.affiliationInstitut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé, Burkina Fasoen
cg.contributor.donorFederal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germanyen
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden
cg.contributor.donorProjekt DEALen
cg.contributor.initiativeOne Health
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.creator.identifierAbdoul Kader Ilboudo: 0000-0001-7241-5182
cg.creator.identifierJason Sircely: 0000-0002-8766-4875
cg.creator.identifierBernard Bett: 0000-0001-9376-2941
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-85873-8en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn2045-2322en
cg.journalScientific Reportsen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.ilriEPIDEMIOLOGYen
cg.subject.ilriZOONOTIC DISEASESen
cg.subject.impactAreaNutrition, health and food security
cg.subject.sdgSDG 3 - Good health and well-beingen
cg.volume15en
dc.contributor.authorIlboudo, Abdoul K.en
dc.contributor.authorOloo, Stephen O.en
dc.contributor.authorSircely, Jasonen
dc.contributor.authorNijhof, A.M.en
dc.contributor.authorBett, Bernard K.en
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-20T11:18:54Zen
dc.date.available2025-01-20T11:18:54Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/169454
dc.titleSpatial analysis and risk mapping of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) in sub-Saharan Africaen
dcterms.abstractCrimean Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a re-emerging tick-borne zoonosis that is caused by CCHF virus (CCHFV). The geographical distribution of the disease and factors that influence its occurrence are poorly known. We analysed historical records on its outbreaks in various countries across the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to identify hotspots and determine socioecological and demographic factors associated with these outbreaks. We used data from historical outbreaks that were reported between 1981 and 2022 in various countries in SSA. To develop a common framework for merging the outbreak data and potential explanatory variables, we generated a common shapefile that combined Level 2 administrative units in all the countries. Several climatic, environmental, socioecological data were obtained from on-line GIS databases and extracted using the shapefile. The data were analysed using an approximate Bayesian hierarchical model using the R-INLA package. The outcome was a Boolean variable which indicated whether an administrative unit in the shapefile was affected in a given year or not. A neighborhood structure was also generated and used to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis. The final model that was obtained from the analysis was used to build a CCHF risk map. A total of 54 CCHF outbreaks were compiled across 414 districts in nine SSA countries. Factors that were positively associated with CCHF outbreaks included human population density, land area under grassland, bare soil cover and shrub cover. Conversely, high precipitation during wet months, elevated mean temperature and slope had negative effects. The risk map generated shows that CCHF occurrence risk is higher in arid and semi-arid land (ASAL) of West Africa, the Sahelian region, Central Africa, and the Eastern and Southern Africa region. The analysis identified ecological and demographic factors that are associated with CCHF outbreaks in SSA. This finding suggests the need to improve surveillance for the disease especially in the grasslands where the human population is increasing.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceAcademicsen
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.available2025-01-17
dcterms.bibliographicCitationIlboudo, A.K., Oloo, S.O., Sircely, J., Nijhof, A.M. and Bett, B. 2025. Spatial analysis and risk mapping of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) in sub-Saharan Africa. Scientific Reports 15: 2292.en
dcterms.extent2292en
dcterms.issued2025-01-17
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherNature Researchen
dcterms.subjectcrimean-congo haemorrhagic feveren
dcterms.subjectepidemiologyen
dcterms.subjectzoonosesen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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