Modeling the spatial distribution of anthrax in southern Kenya

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country instituteen_US
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationSouth Eastern Kenya Universityen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationWashington State Universityen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationJomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technologyen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationMinistry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Irrigation, Kenyaen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Floridaen_US
cg.contributor.crpAgriculture for Nutrition and Healthen_US
cg.contributor.donorUnited States Defense Threat Reduction Agencyen_US
cg.coverage.countryKenyaen_US
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2KEen_US
cg.coverage.regionAfricaen_US
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africaen_US
cg.creator.identifierFredrick Otieno: 0000-0002-3375-8905en_US
cg.creator.identifierBernard Bett: 0000-0001-9376-2941en_US
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden_US
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009301en_US
cg.isijournalISI Journalen_US
cg.issn1935-2735en_US
cg.issue3en_US
cg.journalPLOS Neglected Tropical Diseasesen_US
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen_US
cg.subject.ilriANIMAL DISEASESen_US
cg.subject.ilriHUMAN HEALTHen_US
cg.subject.ilriLIVESTOCKen_US
cg.subject.ilriWILDLIFEen_US
cg.subject.ilriZOONOTIC DISEASESen_US
cg.subject.impactAreaNutrition, health and food securityen_US
cg.subject.sdgSDG 3 - Good health and well-beingen_US
cg.volume15en_US
dc.contributor.authorOtieno, Fredrick T.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGachohi, John M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGikuma-Njuru, P.en_US
dc.contributor.authorKariuki, P.en_US
dc.contributor.authorOyas, H.en_US
dc.contributor.authorCanfield, S.A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBlackburn, J.K.en_US
dc.contributor.authorNjenga, M.K.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBett, Bernard K.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-31T11:20:56Zen_US
dc.date.available2021-03-31T11:20:56Zen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/113180en_US
dc.titleModeling the spatial distribution of anthrax in southern Kenyaen_US
dcterms.abstractBackground Anthrax is an important zoonotic disease in Kenya associated with high animal and public health burden and widespread socio-economic impacts. The disease occurs in sporadic outbreaks that involve livestock, wildlife, and humans, but knowledge on factors that affect the geographic distribution of these outbreaks is limited, challenging public health intervention planning. Methods Anthrax surveillance data reported in southern Kenya from 2011 to 2017 were modeled using a boosted regression trees (BRT) framework. An ensemble of 100 BRT experiments was developed using a variable set of 18 environmental covariates and 69 unique anthrax locations. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (area under the curve) ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curves. Results Cattle density, rainfall of wettest month, soil clay content, soil pH, soil organic carbon, length of longest dry season, vegetation index, temperature seasonality, in order, were identified as key variables for predicting environmental suitability for anthrax in the region. BRTs performed well with a mean AUC of 0.8. Areas highly suitable for anthrax were predicted predominantly in the southwestern region around the shared Kenya-Tanzania border and a belt through the regions and highlands in central Kenya. These suitable regions extend westwards to cover large areas in western highlands and the western regions around Lake Victoria and bordering Uganda. The entire eastern and lower-eastern regions towards the coastal region were predicted to have lower suitability for anthrax. Conclusion These modeling efforts identified areas of anthrax suitability across southern Kenya, including high and medium agricultural potential regions and wildlife parks, important for tourism and foreign exchange. These predictions are useful for policy makers in designing targeted surveillance and/or control interventions in Kenya.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_US
dcterms.audienceScientistsen_US
dcterms.audienceAcademicsen_US
dcterms.available2021-03-29en_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationOtieno, F.T., Gachohi, J., Gikuma-Njuru, P., Kariuki, P., Oyas, H., Canfield, S.A., Blackburn, J.K., Njenga, M.K. and Bett, B. 2021. Modeling the spatial distribution of anthrax in southern Kenya. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15(3): e0009301.en_US
dcterms.extente0009301en_US
dcterms.issued2021-03-29en_US
dcterms.languageenen_US
dcterms.licenseCC0-1.0en_US
dcterms.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen_US
dcterms.subjectanthraxen_US
dcterms.subjectlivestocken_US
dcterms.subjectwildlifeen_US
dcterms.subjectanimal diseasesen_US
dcterms.subjectzoonosesen_US
dcterms.subjecthealthen_US
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen_US

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