Key determinants of global land-use projections

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR single centreen
cg.contributor.affiliationPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agencyen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysisen
cg.contributor.affiliationPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Researchen
cg.contributor.affiliationJoint Global Change Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationWageningen University & Researchen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Food Policy Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.crpClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
cg.contributor.crpPolicies, Institutions, and Markets
cg.contributor.donorMinistry of Environment of Japanen
cg.contributor.donorEuropean Unionen
cg.creator.identifierHugo Valin: 0000-0002-0618-773X
cg.creator.identifierTomoko Hasegawa: 0000-0003-2456-5789
cg.creator.identifierDaniel Mason-D'Croz: 0000-0003-0673-2301
cg.creator.identifierKeith Wiebe: 0000-0001-6035-620X
cg.edition10en
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09945-wen
cg.identifier.projectCCAFS: PII-FP1_IMPACT
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Environment and Production Technology Division
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Global Futures and Strategic Foresight
cg.identifier.publicationRankA Plus
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn2041-1723en
cg.issue1en
cg.journalNature Communicationsen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.ccafsPRIORITIES AND POLICIES FOR CSAen
cg.volume10en
dc.contributor.authorStehfest, Elkeen
dc.contributor.authorZeist, Willem-Jan vanen
dc.contributor.authorValin, Hugoen
dc.contributor.authorHavlik, Petren
dc.contributor.authorPopp, Alexanderen
dc.contributor.authorKyle, Pageen
dc.contributor.authorTabeau, Andrzejen
dc.contributor.authorMason-D'Croz, Danielen
dc.contributor.authorHasegawa, Tomokoen
dc.contributor.authorBodirsky, Benjamin L.en
dc.contributor.authorCalvin, Katherineen
dc.contributor.authorDoelman, Jonathan Cen
dc.contributor.authorFujimori, Shinichiroen
dc.contributor.authorHumpenöder, Florianen
dc.contributor.authorLotze-Campen, Hermannen
dc.contributor.authorMeijl, Hans vanen
dc.contributor.authorWiebe, Keith D.en
dc.date.accessioned2019-09-13T15:37:28Zen
dc.date.available2019-09-13T15:37:28Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/103642
dc.titleKey determinants of global land-use projectionsen
dcterms.abstractLand use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2019-05-15
dcterms.bibliographicCitationStehfest E, van Zeist WJ, Valin H, Havlik P, Popp A, Kyle P, Tabeau A, Mason-D'Croz D, Hasegawa T, Bodirsky BL, Calvin K, Doelman JC, Fujimori S, Humpenöder F, Lotze-Campen H, van Meijl H, Wiebe K. 2019. Key determinants of global land-use projections. Nature Communications 10:2166.en
dcterms.extent2166en
dcterms.issued2019-05-15
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherSpringeren
dcterms.replaceshttps://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll5/id/6664en
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectagricultureen
dcterms.subjectfood securityen
dcterms.subjectmodelsen
dcterms.subjecttechnological changesen
dcterms.subjectagricultural productionen
dcterms.subjecteconomic developmenten
dcterms.subjectcommoditiesen
dcterms.subjectpasturesen
dcterms.subjectfarmlanden
dcterms.subjectland useen
dcterms.subjecttradeen
dcterms.subjectagricultural productivityen
dcterms.subjectland-use planningen
dcterms.subjectpricesen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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