Climate change will exacerbate seasonal flow variability in the Karnali River Basin: implications for water, energy, and agriculture sectors

Simple item page
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Water Management Institute
cg.contributor.affiliationAbeyaantrix Consulting Services Pvt. Ltd, Lalitpur, Nepal
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Fund
cg.contributor.initiativeNEXUS Gains
cg.coverage.countryNepal
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2NP
cg.coverage.subregionKarnali River Basin
cg.creator.identifierSaurav Pradhananga: 0000-0002-3378-7036
cg.creator.identifierSantosh Nepal: 0000-0002-7415-2299
cg.creator.identifierMohsin Hafeez: 0000-0003-4115-2994
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2025.193
cg.identifier.iwmilibraryH053891
cg.identifier.projectIWMI - C-0057
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.issn1998-9563
cg.journalHydrology Research
cg.reviewStatusPeer Review
dc.contributor.authorPradhananga, Saurav
dc.contributor.authorNepal, Santosh
dc.contributor.authorKamal, S. K.
dc.contributor.authorHafeez, Mohsin
dc.date.accessioned2025-06-20T11:48:00Z
dc.date.available2025-06-20T11:48:00Z
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/175216
dc.titleClimate change will exacerbate seasonal flow variability in the Karnali River Basin: implications for water, energy, and agriculture sectorsen
dcterms.abstractClimate change impacts water resources in the Himalayan region, with cross-sectoral effects felt across various scales. This study focuses on the Karnali River, which is crucial for livelihoods, agriculture, and hydropower generation in the region, and assesses the impact of climate change on these sectors. We use the SWATþ hydrological model with bias-corrected high-resolution CMIP6 projections to simulate future hydrology. Winter and spring discharge is projected to decrease by 3 (SSP245) to 23% (SSP585), while monsoon and post-monsoon discharge may increase by up to 18 (SSP245) and 51% (SSP585) by the end-century, primarily due to precipitation changes. Wet energy production from the Upper Karnali hydropower project is likely to increase, whereas dry energy may decrease, reducing overall reliability. The highest wet energy increase (9%) occurs under SSP585’s cold-wet scenario, while the largest dry energy decline (16%) is under SSP245’s warm-dry scenario by the end-century. Irrigation water requirements for paddy and wheat are also expected to increase, with paddy’s initial growth stage potentially doubling under warm-dry SSP585 conditions by the end-century. Our findings highlight the need for integrated water, food, and energy management strategies in the Karnali River basin to address the cross-sectoral impacts, particularly considering climate change challenges.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2025-05-23
dcterms.bibliographicCitationPradhananga, Saurav; Nepal, Santosh; Kamal, S. K.; Hafeez, Mohsin. 2025. Climate change will exacerbate seasonal flow variability in the Karnali River Basin: implications for water, energy, and agriculture sectors. Hydrology Research, 20p. (Online first) [doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2025.193]
dcterms.extent20p.
dcterms.issued2025-05
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherIWA Publishing
dcterms.subjectclimate change
dcterms.subjectriver basins
dcterms.subjectwater balance
dcterms.subjecthydropower
dcterms.subjecthydrology
dcterms.subjectenergy generation
dcterms.subjectagricultural sector
dcterms.typeJournal Article

Files

License bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.75 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

IWMI Journal Articles
CGIAR Initiative on NEXUS Gains
Water, Food, Energy Nexus (WFEN)