CGIAR Initiative on Foresight

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/117889

Part of the CGIAR Action Area on Systems Transformation.

Primary CGIAR impact area: Poverty reduction, livelihoods and jobs

https://www.cgiar.org/initiative/24-foresight-and-metrics-to-accelerate-inclusive-and-sustainable-agrifood-system-transformation/

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Fine-tuned AI for tracking policy demands and studies
(Brief, 2025-06-01) Yego, Francis; Song, Chun; Laporte, Marie-Angelique
This Learning Note describes the development of an AI-based system using fine-tuned language models to support researchers in identifying and analyzing policy demands. The Alliance’s PISA team developed an annotated dataset from policy documents, labeling key elements such as drivers, outcomes, and interventions, and classifying texts as either foresight or ex-post studies. The AI model, based on RoBERTa, performed Named Entity Recognition and classification tasks, achieving high precision for socioeconomic and biophysical entities. However, it faced challenges in distinguishing study types and interpreting nuanced contexts. The Note highlights technical and non-technical challenges, and emphasizes the importance of modular AI models and interdisciplinary collaboration for effective policy analysis. Future efforts aim to enhance context reasoning and deploy user-facing tools like web portals or chatbots.
Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments
(Journal Article, 2025) Petsakos, Athanasios; Montes, Carlo; Falck-Zepeda, José; Pequeno, Diego Noleto Luz; Schiek, Benjamin; Gotor, Elisabetta
Regional and global economic models, combined with spatially distributed crop growth simulation models and hydrology models that simulate water supply and demand across sectors (among others), represent the most widely used quantitative approach for addressing questions related to food security under alternative future scenarios (e.g., for a recent reference, van Dijk et al., 2021). These integrated foresight modelling approaches, hereinafter referred to as “Agricultural Integrated Assessment Models” (AIAMs), provide a macro-level view of the global food system, encompassing, directly or indirectly, implicitly or explicitly, components outlined in contemporary definitions (HLPE, 2017). Due to the complex nature of modelling the effects of crop pests and pathogens (P&P) on crop performances, the use of AIAMs in P&P-related analyses has been scant and limited to hypothetical epidemics caused by specific P&Ps affecting a single crop (Godfray et al., 2016; Petsakos et al., 2023). This limitation, also identified in the ex-ante assessment of the pesticide reduction objective of the European Common Agricultural Policy (Barreiro-Hurle et al., 2021), suggests that AIAMs overlook a critical element – one that has historically contributed to, or even triggered, famine events (Padmanabhan, 1973; Woodham-Smith, 1992). Given the importance of AIAMs in informing policies and shaping agricultural decisions at national and global scales (e.g., Barreiro-Hurle et al., 2021; Fuglie et al., 2022), it is necessary to adress this gap.
Social Accounting Matrix for Okara District, Pakistan: A Water Resources Accountability in Pakistan (WRAP) Project Analysis
(Data Paper, 2025-05-09) Davies, Stephen; Ali, Muhammad Tahir; Akram, Iqra; Hafeez, Mohsin
The aim of this paper is to develop a document to guide the methodology and data resources used to develop a local Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Okara district in Punjab, Pakistan, and to provide an overview of the SAM results. Regional SAMs at lower administrative levels can be used to understand the regional economic impact of geographically targeted policies and shocks. The common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for national SAMs are adapted and modified for these regional SAMs. This approach and paper closely follow the development of SAM construction outlined in IFPRI’s NEXUS Project, which emphasized the need for greater transparency and consistency in SAM construction to strengthen model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries. Utilizing much of that Project’s general structure, our results permit comparisons at regional administrative scales, especially in agriculture and food systems including water resources dimensions. Additionally, this paper develops a companion method to evaluate direct and indirect water use associated with the economic changes produced from SAM analyses. We hope this methodology can be used to develop SAMs for other districts in the future.
Assessing agrifood system growth outcomes in Tajikistan
(Brief, 2025-04-25) Khakimov, Parviz; Diao, Xinshen; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur
On March 1, 2023, the Government of Tajikistan adopted a new sectoral program, “Agrifood System and Sustainable Development Program,” for the period up to 2030. The program defined six priorities, namely (1) strengthening institutions, (2) enabling physical infrastructure, (3) creating an agriculture extension system, (4) ensuring food and nutrition security, (5) ensuring food safety and, veterinary and plant protection, and (6) establishing effectively functioning value chains. The Program aims to ensure sustainable development of the sector and enhance its competitiveness through structural and institutional reforms, by boosting sector productivity, creating new jobs, and ensuring food security. To inform the policy by providing empirical evidence, in this brief, first we assess and compare diverse contributions of different agrifood value chains to broad development outcomes, second, we assess the effectiveness of agricultural productivity-led growth across agrifood value chain groups for achieving multiple development outcomes (economic growth, job creation, declining poverty, and improved diets) and inclusive agrifood system transformation in Tajikistan.
Structural changes and drivers of agrifood system growth in Tajikistan
(Brief, 2025-04-25) Khakimov, Parviz; Diao, Xinshen; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur
The agricultural sector accounted for one-third and one-fourth of total GDP in 2011 in 2022, respectively. In 2022 compared to 2011, both primary and off farm agricultural GDPs dropped, respectively by 13.2 and 3 percentage points, while primary agriculture employment share fell by 10.4 percentage points. The domestic market played a vital role in the recent agrifood system (AFS) growth, and a sizable portion of locally produced agrifood products was able to meet domestic demand. Though agroprocessing an important off-farm component of the AFS, grew more rapidly and thus contributed the most to off farm AFS growth, the aggregate size of off-farm components of the AFS did not increase to match with the structural change in the broader economy.
Tajikistan’s agrifood system structure
(Brief, 2025-04-25) Khakimov, Parviz; Diao, Xinshen; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur
Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS) accounted for 34.7 percent of Tajikistan’s national GDP and 58 percent of employment in 2022. Primary agriculture alone contributed one-quarter of total GDP and 54.9 percent of employment, while the four off-farm components of the AFS contributed about 10 percent of GDP and 3.2 percent of employment. The share of employment in primary agriculture in total employment in AFS (AgEmp+) is huge, 94 percent. The off-farm components of the AFS therefore accounted for close to 30 percent of AgGDP+ and only 5 percent of AgEMP+. Though Tajikistan is an agrarian economy, it imports a lot of foods, and the shares of imports in the country’s total merchandise imports are consistently high, around 22 percent between 2016 and 2022. For the same period, food exports as a percentage of total merchandise exports were just 3 percent (World Bank 2023). Agrifood imports also grew more rapidly, increasing by a multiple of 16 between 2000 and 2023, while exports only doubled over the same period (Khakimov, et al. 2024).
CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight: Annual Technical Report 2024
(Report, 2025-04-15) CGIAR Initiative on Foresight
Projections of poultry and maize markets in Southern Africa under climate change
(Poster, 2024-08-04) Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Mensah, Charles
Repurposing fertilizer subsidies in India: An economywide modelling analysis
(Brief, 2025-03) Devi, Asha; Praveen, K. V.; Sharma, Kriti; Pal, Barun Deb; Singh, Alka; Barman, Subrata; Reddy, K. R.; Hanji, Shreya; Rao, Ch. Srinivasa
Between 1980 and 2023-pushed by green revolution technology and fertilizer subsidy policy-fertilizer consumption in India increased from 31.95 kg/ha to 136.05 kg/ha {FAI 2024). The fiscal burden of fertilizer subsidies in India has surged dramatically, increasing from INR 505 crores in 1980/1981 to INR 2,25,220 crores in 2022/2023 ( ibid). As of 2022/2023, the budgetary allocation for fertilizer subsidy was 1.02 percent of India's gross value added (GVA). Fertilizer subsidies have led to greater price increases for phosphorus and potassium fertilizers than for urea, making urea the preferred choice among farmers. This consequent overreliance on urea has created significant imbalances in soil nutrient composition, and subsidized urea is also often diverted to other industries undermining its intended benefit for the agricultural sector.
Impact of rice export ban on Indian economy
(Brief, 2025-03) V. R., Renjini; Ajmani, Manmeet Singh; Pal, Barun Deb; Singh, Alka; Nandi, Sukhendu; Naik, P. Bhargav; Naorem, Yoihenba; Mazumder, Chiranjit; Rao, Ch. Srinivasa
In India, rice is an important crop that provides livelihood opportunity for millions of farmers and ensures food security for the 1.4 billion population. India also contributes 25 percent of global rice production and 40 percent of global rice exports, exporting 16 percent of its domestic rice production (FAO 2022). On the other hand, delayed onset of monsoon, extreme weather events, and weather variability significantly affect rice production and the domestic price of rice in the country (Palanisami et al. 201 7; Bowden, Foster, Parkes 2023). In response to this situation, policymakers frequently reassess export strategies to ensure adequate domestic supply and to control price fluctuations. Given India's significant contribution to the global rice market, any change in rice trade policy to stabilize the domestic rice market in India will affect the global supply chain of rice and the livelihood of lndian farmers. In 2022/2023, in an effort to control rice prices, the government-imposed export restrictions on different varieties of rice such as broken, brown, non-basmati, basmati, and parboiled rice. Figure 1 reveals that total rice exports from India declined from 16.55 lakh metric tons (mt) to 7.58 lakh mt between July 2023 and November 2023, following the July 2023 ban on non-basmati white rice exports. In August 2023, exports of non-basmati white rice declined sharply from 3.81 lakh mt to 0.40 lakh mt, and exports remained negligible until the ban was lifted in February 2024. Parboiled rice also saw a decline, though it was less severe due to selective export allowances. Exports began recovering from early 2024, driven by basmati and parboiled rice. This recovery aligned with India's October 2024 decision to remove the 20 percent export duty on parboiled rice. India's global market share dropped from 35.48 percent in 2022 to 30.46 percent in 2023, creating opportunities for other major rice -exporting countries. Vietnam saw an increase in its exports from 10.52 percent of global share to 11.23 percent, while Pakistan's share rose from 7.75 percent to 8.39 percent. Thailand maintained a steady presence at around 15 percent and the US share rose marginally from 5.62 percent to 5.87 percent. These shifts highlight how India's policy decision disrupted global trade patterns, benefitting competing exporters and altering the international rice market dynamics. Even so, the economywide impact of these restrictions on the Indian economy remains underexplored. While the government aims to maintain domestic price stability, it is unclear how effectively the export ban shields consumers from inflation and how this compares to the income losses experienced by exporters and farmers. Questions also persist about the policy's spill over effects on overall market dynamics. In this note, we examine the impact of the rice export ban on GDP (by sector), employment, and household income in India. We also provide insights aimed at helping policymakers balance affordability for consumers with stable incomes for producers.
IFPRI-Sudan: Generating evidence-based solutions for strengthening humanitarian response and economic resilience
(Brief, 2025-04-07) Siddig, Khalid; Abay, Kibrom A.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; Rakhy, Tarig
Sudan is experiencing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Sudan is now suffering the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. The war has devastated livelihoods, displaced millions, and significantly weakened the country’s agrifood systems and broader economic structures. In response, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), along with its partners, has intensified its research and policy engagement in Sudan through the Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), which was launched in 2022. IFPRI’s work on Sudan is centered on addressing fragility, post-conflict recovery, resilience-building, and economic development. Its research and policy engagements focus on food security, economy-wide modeling, social protection, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSME), and agricultural resilience as it works to provide critical evidence-based insights to support recovery efforts that will enable Sudan to regain peace and economic growth and stability. Through high-frequency data collection, impact evaluations, and policy dialogues, the SSSP team has continued to deliver data-driven solutions to inform humanitarian responses, economic revitalization, and development planning in Sudan. By collaborating with organizations such as the World Food Programme (WFP), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank, and other CGIAR centers and initiatives, IFPRI, through SSSP, has generated information to design effective interventions for conflict-affected populations and institutions working to rebuild Sudan’s economy.
Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP): Background and research output
(Brief, 2025-04-03) International Food Policy Research Institute
The Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), one of the country programs of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), commenced operations in May 2022 from the premises of the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, its official host institution in Sudan. Established with funding from USAID, the United States Agency for International Development, the program has also formed partnerships or received support from a number of prominent organizations, including the CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration, the CGIAR Initiative on NEXUS Gains, the United Nations Development Programme, the World Bank, the World Food Programme, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
Does social capital influence the intensity of conservation agriculture adoption among smallholder farmers in Malawi?
(Journal Article, 2025) Mathanda, H.; Pangapanga-Phiri, I.; Hirpa Tufa, A.; Mangisoni, J.; Alene, A.; Ngoma, H.; Phiri, H.H.; Chikoye, D.
Addressing persistent food insecurity requires increased and sustained agricultural productivity in spite of compounding challenges of worsening climate shocks and soil degradation. However, despite numerous initiatives by stakeholders like the Malawian government, along with strong scientific evidence supporting Conservation Agriculture (CA), adoption rates in Malawi remain lower than expected. This study examined social capital as a catalyst for the adoption of CA. It used data from 1512 randomly selected smallholder farmers to investigate how different elements of social capital influenced farmers’ decisions to adopt CA practices. The study findings revealed that social capital elements, namely, group membership and relationships with leadership positively influenced CA adoption. Additionally, factors such as cultivated land size, access to extension services, livestock ownership, and credit availability contributed to the number of CA practices adopted. While the transition to full CA adoption remained limited compared to partial adoption, the study revealed promising trends toward greater uptake. Consequently, these findings highlight the need for agricultural policies that promote farmer organizations, community engagement, and training programs to strengthen social networks and enhance the adoption of CA practices in Malawi.
Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges
(Working Paper, 2025-03-18) Diao, Xinshen; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Aliev, Jovidon; Fang, Peixun; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
This study analyzes the past performance and future opportunities and challenges of Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS). The study measures the current size and structure of AFS and its historical contribution to economic growth and transformation through a data-driven exercise. A forward-looking economywide model is used to assess the effectiveness of future AFS growth (led by agricultural productivity gains in different value chains) in promoting multiple development outcomes. The findings of the study indicate that AFS transformation is an important part of Tajikistan’s economic transformation and structural change. Because of lower growth contributions from AFS’s off-farm components as well as fewer farm workers moving from primary agriculture to off-farm activities within AFS, Tajikistan’s AFS did not grow as quickly as the broader economy. Expanding off-farm activities to boost on-farm productivity growth remains a challenge for sustainable transformation of Tajikistan’s AFS. Using an economywide model, we find that there is no single value chain group that would most effectively achieve all desired development outcomes including broad economic growth, job creation, declining poverty, and improved diets. Livestock value chains, however, have the most potential to contribute to multiple development outcomes, particularly to dietary improvement, and these value chains also performed impressively during the study period. Moreover, most cattle and ruminants are owned by household farms, and their growth could contribute to broader agricultural transformation. The maize value chain also ranks high in the model-based comparison, but it seems to only modestly contribute to job creation and diet quality and had performed disappointingly during the study period. While growth in livestock and maize value chains face a series of challenges and constraints, promoting them together seems to offer an effective way to broadly achieve important development outcomes.
Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea
(Brief, 2025-03) Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D.
In this paper we present a brief summary of recent historical climate of Papua New Guinea (PNG), finding that rainfall has been increasing greatly compared to pre-1995 levels, but that temperature has only been rising at a moderate rate. We then examine the 5 climate models used in this study from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) / ISIMIP / CMIP3b, discovering one – IPSL – which best reflects the climate trends noted in PNG since 1995. The climate model projections show that temperature changes in PNG are expected to be less than most other places in the world and precipitation changes in PNG are projected to be higher than most other places in the world. Despite noting that IPSL seems to best represent climate changes observed thus far, we use all 5 climate models in the DSSAT crop model for taro, investigating how each climate model will lead to changes in taro yields at each half-degree pixel. In the aggregate, we find that the IPSL model leads to the greatest projected reduction in taro yield at -6.4% for the nation, with Southern region projected to have greater than 10% yield reduction for taro. Across the 5 climate models, the median across model results suggest only a 1.6% yield reduction, while the most optimistic model projects a 4.4% gain. Because of uncertainty across climate models and different impacts across regions, as well as potentially increasing climate variability which would lead to more extreme events including droughts and floods, we recommend developing a suite of options to help farmers navigate future climate uncertainty. For example, developing and testing crop varieties that would offer better yields whether the future is wetter or drier, as well as varieties that are less sensitive to temperature extremes. These could include new varieties of taro but might also include alternative crops and farming techniques designed to protect the plants during ad-verse climate events.
Potential decarbonization for balancing local and non-local perishable food supply in megacities
(Journal Article, 2025-06) Lin, Xintao; Qian, Jianping; Chen, Jian; Yu, Qiangyi; You, Liangzhi; Chen, Qian; Li, Jiali; Xiao, Pengnan; Jiang, Jingyi
Ensuring urban food security while reducing carbon emissions from food systems is a key challenge. Food localization can reduce transport emissions; however, its role in agricultural production emissions reductions is unclear. Here, we explored the effects of localization of seven perishables, incorporating emissions from production and cold-chain logistics, in Beijing and Shanghai, China; determined decarbonization under different scenarios by increasing or decreasing the localization, with or without constrains, of each food category (balancing strategy). The results show that every 1% increase in the localization of vegetables, poultry, and aquatic products decreased 2020 emissions by 0.4–1.9 tCO2e, but for beef and lamb, it increased emissions by 0.2–2.9 tCO2e. Localization decreased cold-chain emission shares for all foods. The balancing strategy with constraints reduced emissions by 0.76 MtCO2e (5%) and 0.44 MtCO2e (2%) in 2020 in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively. Utilizing urban agriculture at all costs (i.e., without constraints) further reduced emissions by a factor of 3–4. Over 90% of Beijing’s emissions added by 2035 under the business-as-usual scenario were projected to be offset by the strategy. In Shanghai, the strategy could reduce emissions by an additional 0.44 MtCO2e. The results indicate that expanding imports of carbon-intensive ruminant meat to replace local production and reallocating urban resources to vegetables, poultry, and aquatic products could lead to more sustainable food supplies in megacities. Further development of cold-chain logistics is expected to reduce emissions in synergy with the balancing strategy. Our results could help inform better food system planning in megacities.
A band selection method for consumer-grade camera modification for UAV-based rapeseed growth monitoring
(Journal Article, 2025-03) Wang, Chufeng; Zhang, Jian; Wu, Hao; Liu, Bin; Wang, Botao; You, Yunhao; Tan, Zuojun; Xie, Jing; You, Liangzhi; Zhang, Junqiang; Wen, Ping
Near-infrared (NIR) modification of low-cost cameras is considered an important method to acquire high-resolution NIR images on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform. However, few studies have examined filter selection methods to modify consumer-grade cameras for UAV-based agricultural crop monitoring. This study addresses a key challenge: how to balance imaging quality with spectral sensitivity when selecting filters for the modification of consumer-grade cameras. To this end, the normalized difference spectral index (NDSI) and the ratio spectral index (RSI) formulations were used to calculate the spectral indices (SIs) from all possible combinations of any two center wavelengths in UAV hyperspectral data. The contour maps of the coefficient of determination (R2) between the SIs and ground-measured rapeseed LAI were then computed to automatically generate the broadband combinations with optimized center wavelengths and effective bandwidths for selecting filters on camera modification. Results showed that a consumer-grade camera (Nikon D7000) modified by the selected filters had performance comparable with a multispectral camera (RedEdge Micasense 3), but slightly worse than a research-grade hyperspectral camera (Nano-Hyperspec®) in terms of SIs for LAI estimation. In addition, the high-resolution images from the modified camera were processed to obtain accurate crop plant height information. The SIs coupled with plant height from the modified camera (rRMSE = 18.1 % for field 1 and 14.3 % for field 2) was found to perform similar to, and in some cases even better than, those from the research-grade multispectral (rRMSE = 17.9 % and 16.7 % for the respective fields) and hyperspectral (rRMSE = 18.8 % for field 1) cameras for UAV-based LAI estimation. The findings from this study indicate that the proposed camera modification method is feasible and adaptable to agricultural crop monitoring. Thus, appropriately modified consumer-grade cameras can be a cost-effective replacement for research-grade sensors to rapidly and accurately assess crop growth status.
Global analysis reveals persistent shortfalls and regional differences in availability of foods needed for health
(Journal Article, 2025-03) Costlow, Leah; Herforth, Anna; Sulser, Timothy B.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Masters, William A.
Sufficient food is available in the world for all people to consume sufficient calories, but not healthy diets. This study traces historical and projected changes in global food systems toward alignment with the new Healthy Diet Basket (HDB) used by UN agencies and the World Bank to monitor the cost and affordability of healthy diets worldwide. Using the HDB as a standard to measure adequacy of national, regional and global supply-demand balances, we find substantial but inconsistent progress toward closer alignment with dietary guidelines, with large global shortfalls in fruits, vegetables, and legumes, nuts, and seeds, and large disparities among regions in use of animal source foods. Projections show that additional investments aimed at reducing chronic hunger would modestly accelerate improvements in adequacy where shortfalls are greatest, revealing the need for complementary investments to increase access to under-consumed food groups especially in low-income countries.
Strategic modeling for future agriculture in Asia
(Report, 2025) Cenacchi, Nicola; Sulser, Timothy B.
This APO report pinpoints the declining agricultural productivity situation in APO economies since 2019 and explores how key measures could accelerate progress achieving food security and mitigating undernourishment by improving calorie availability per person. Key challenges include slowed agricultural productivity, climate change, land degradation, insufficient R&D investment, water scarcity, and inefficiencies in markets. The report examines measures such as policy interventions and investments in R&D, irrigation, and water use efficiency to enhance productivity, food security, and sustainable resource use. Such measures could accelerate progress toward achieving food security and mitigating undernourishment by improving calorie availability per person.
Global Handbook of Rice Policies
(Book, 2024) Antonio, Ronald Jeremy; Valera, Harold Glenn; Durand-Morat, Alvaro; Hoang, Hoa; Diagne, Mandiaye; Malakhail, Fazal; Pede, Valerien
The objective of this Handbook is to summarize global coverage of recent information on policy instruments used by governments to realize objectives related to rice production and supply, rice markets, and trade. Unlike previous work that focuses only on Asia, this Handbook attempts to provide a more comprehensive documentation of rice policies for Asia, Africa, the Americas, Europe, and the Middle East. Rice policies remain quite significant in many countries in these regions. Rice continues to play a significant role in food security in Asia and Africa, where rice production contributes 89% and 5% to global rice production, respectively. The changing role of rice in these two regions dramatically intensifies the need for information among policymakers who attach great weight to national food security imperatives in the crafting of rice programs. Similar to the United States and exporting countries in Asia, Latin America is also highly relevant for the world rice market since it houses some key rice exporters (i.e., Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay). Likewise, rice is an important traded commodity in the Middle East, accounting for 13% of the world’s rice imports based on USDA estimates for 2023. Overall, this Handbook covers 70 countries and regions, which collectively account for 99% of global rice production and 98% of consumption.

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