IWMI Conference Chapters or Papers

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Agroecology homestead models: enhancing nutrition, soil health, and income for tribal farmers [Abstract only]
(Conference Paper, 2024-09-11) Kumar, Gopal; Malaiappan, Sudharsan; Sikka, Alok; Konwar, D.; Singh, S.
Tribal communities in Madhya Pradesh, India are characterised by limited interaction with outside world and minimal exposure to developmental initiatives, heavily rely on self-production and the collection of Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFP) for sustenance. However, this reliance often leads to imbalanced nutrition and irregular income, exacerbated by monoculture farming practices and diminishing forest resources. Coupled with widespread migration, gender inequality, and social alienation, these challenges perpetuate a cycle of poverty and malnutrition within these communities. To address these issues, an Agroecological Homestead Model (AHM) has been developed and promoted for adoption. Unlike regions with limited land holdings, tribal farmers in this region possess sizable but degraded land. The AHM utilises homesteads, employing water harvesting and storage systems for irrigation, multi-layer cultivation, crop rotation, horticulture plants, applying natural amendments, composting, backyard poultry and goat rearing, using local seed varieties, and nutrient rich fodder for livestock. Community engagement is facilitated through resource aggregation for bio-input production, planting materials and collective marketing efforts. Implemented on less than 0.1 hectares, the AHM, predominantly managed by women, accommodates 10 to 16 types of vegetable/crops annually. Initial support and capacity building, particularly through women led self-help groups, are crucial for adoption. Despite initial challenges such as investment requirements and knowledge gaps, the establishment of community nurseries, training on natural amendment preparation, and dissemination of knowledge on farm management were found instrumental in scaling the model. The AHM has resulted in significant improvements, including a 100% increase in dietary diversity, over 70% rise in green vegetable consumption, increase in protein intake. Soil health indicators, including organic carbon levels and water retention capacity, have shown promising improvements, validated through citizen science approach. Multistakeholder engagement, involving government departments, research institutions, and women's groups, is essential for the model's success. Efforts are underway to explore local business opportunities linked to the AHM, leveraging existing government programs, and advocating for policy changes at the national level to address malnutrition among marginalised farmers women and children across the country.
Krishi Kund for agroecological transition of degraded lands: microsite for improved production and ecosystem services [Abstract only]
(Conference Paper, 2024-09-11) Malaiappan, Sudharsan; Kumar, Gopal; Sikka, Alok
Decades of rampant land degradation have rendered many areas unsuitable for cultivation. In Madhya Pradesh, India, land degradation along with difficult terrain, and poor soil conditions make significant portions of land unfit for cultivation leading to the migration of tribal communities. These degraded or sporadically cultivated lands are caught in a vicious cycle leading to further degradation. A cost-effective agroecological approach to transform degraded lands into productive assets using natural amendments is crucial for improving agricultural diversity, soil health, and overall ecosystem services. It also helps alleviate the pressure of intensive farming on other lands. Moreover, this practice holds promise for reversing migration among tribal communities. The CGIAR’s Agroecology Initiative, in collaboration with local tribal farmers and stakeholders, has co-designed an innovative practice locally popularized as Krishi Kund (micro-site improvement with agriculture pits). This practice focuses on improving micro-sites rather than entire parcels of land using organic amendments. In this method, small cylindrical pits (did: 60cm, depth 60cm) are excavated at 1.2m intervals, filled with locally available organic materials such as cow dung compost, vermicompost, plant biomass, and organic inoculants, and then covered with sieved soil. This approach improves approximately 20% (6450 pits per hectare) of the land area, resulting in a similar yield of fully restored land. Circular depressions around each pit serve as micro catchments, conserving rainwater on-site. This technique effectively enhances soil physical condition, fertility, water retention, thermal buffering leading to successful crop establishment and production. Drought tolerant crops viz pigeon pea, caster for the poor water availability sites and other cash crops including vegetables at sites of water availability are being grown. A two-year recovery period was estimated for the cost incurred on land restoration. Krishi Kund offers a resource-efficient alternative for restoring degraded lands by concentrating organic materials within specific areas and minimising soil loss. This method aligns with the goal of achieving Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) and can significantly contribute to fulfiling Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15.3, which aims to end desertification and restore degraded land.
Can the traditionally managed FMIS in Nepal be strengthen by incorporating groundwater-based irrigation systems?
(Conference Paper, 2023-08) Neupane, Nilhari; Shrestha, Shisher; Verma, Shilp
Farmer Managed Irrigated System (FMIS) which is predominantly surface irrigation system in Nepal irrigates 51% of country’s total surface irrigated area. The FMIS system has a century-old history with a network of irrigation infrastructures and robust institutional mechanisms. However, FMIS faces challenges, with water shortage being a major concern, particularly during the dry season. The effects of climate change, extreme weather events, and socioeconomic developments, such as rising labor migration, have further exacerbated the water shortage. As a result, farmers are unable to maximize their outputs and face difficulties in transitioning to commercial and high-value crops. Additionally, waterrelated disputes, especially among tail users, are evident, leading to labor scarcity and a reduction in the FMIS command area. The FMIS system stands at a crossroads, and failure to address these challenges promptly could result in significant damage costs, including the loss of land and labor productivity, as well as the erosion of social capital and physical infrastructures. Moreover, there have been cases where FMIS canals, known as Raj Kulo, have been converted into roads and other public infrastructures. In contrast, groundwater development in the Tarai region has been evolving independently. Groundwater resources are extensively utilized by farmers in Nepal's plains, employing various groundwater pumping technologies to meet their irrigation water requirements. However, the development of groundwater faces its own set of challenges, including the need for separate social and physical infrastructures and increasing transaction costs for smooth functioning. Additionally, the higher irrigation costs associated with pumping water from groundwater sources pose financial burdens on independent groundwater users, which could be avoided through integration with the FMIS surface irrigation system. To address these challenges, the study proposes a holistic and integrated FMIS and groundwater-based irrigation model. This model encourages the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources, considering social, economic, and environmental factors simultaneously and utilizing common social and physical infrastructures. During the monsoon season, surface water can be utilized for irrigation crops and also replenishing groundwater reserve. In the summer and winter, when surface water availability decreases, farmers can switch to groundwater to optimize their farm income. The study combines primary and secondary data. Secondary literature was extensively used to gather information on FMIS, while primary data from six case studies of deep tube wells (DTWs) conducted in the Madhesh Province were collected to gain insights into groundwater use models. Descriptive statistical analysis was employed to compare farm income, labor expenses, irrigation costs, and institutional dynamics between FMIS and groundwater-based irrigation systems. The results indicate the potential benefits and synergies of integrating FMIS and groundwater-based irrigation, which can revitalize FMIS, improve agricultural practices, and enhance farm profitability. The proposed integrated model offers advantages, such as conjunctive use of surface and groundwater, year-round irrigation, groundwater replenishment during the monsoon season, and the utilization of existing FMIS social and physical infrastructures. While the integration may involve additional expenses, specially primarily installation costs, it is anticipated that the resulting lower labor costs for repairs and maintenance, reduced canal construction expenses, and higher farm profits will offset these initial investments and contribute to the overall sustainability of the agricultural system. Although the proposed integrated model has not yet been implemented extensively, FMIS and groundwater-based irrigation systems have been piloted and validated separately in the past. Therefore, it is recommended to test the dynamic model in terms of economic and environmental aspects and consider upscaling it to a broader agro-ecological zone. The findings suggest that integrating FMIS with groundwater-based irrigation presents an opportunity to overcome the challenges faced by both systems in Nepal's Tarai region. By leveraging the strengths of each system and utilizing common social and physical infrastructures, the proposed approach can contribute to sustainable agricultural practices, improve farm profitability, and mitigate water scarcity issues. However, further research, collaboration, and policy support are needed to implement and scale up this integrated model successfully.
Remote sensing estimations of water quality dynamics in the Asian mega deltas
(Abstract, 2024-05-07) Jampani, Mahesh
In the Asian Mega Deltas, Mekong, Irrawaddy, and Ganges, millions of people depend on the aquatic environments for livelihoods. Inhabitants in these delta systems often face health risks that are amplified by anthropogenic pollution loads from terrestrial environments and tidal incursions from coastal environments. The water quality deterioration in these delta systems is complex, often due to a lack of wastewater treatment capacities, upstream activities, climate change implications, and inefficient water management practices. These impacts often lead to the contamination of both riverine and coastal ecosystems, adversely affecting local livelihoods and economies. Therefore, there is an urgent need to understand water quality dynamics within these deltas. The current research leverages multi-sensor satellite imagery in combination with predictive 20modelling to address these challenges. Overall, this research aims to evaluate the spatial and temporal variations of water quality and provide an essential understanding of contaminant plume extent, seasonal dynamics, and pollution occurrence based on events. This research and analysis provide insights into pollution dynamics, evaluating impacts, and developing robust strategies to improve water management in delta systems, thereby mitigating public health risks.
Addressing salinity intrusion in the polders of coastal Bangladesh: predictive machine-learning modeling for strategic sluice gate operations
(Abstract, 2024-12-11) Behera, Abhijit; Sena, Dipaka Ranjan; Hasib, Md. R.; Matheswaran, Karthikeyan; Jampani, Mahesh; Mizan, Syed Adil; Islam, Md. J.; Alam, R.; Mondal, M. K.; Sikka, Alok Kumar
The coastal zone of Bangladesh comprises several polders, which are low-lying tracts of land surrounded by embankments to protect against tidal floods and saline water intrusion. They also enhance freshwater availability and aid in improving land productivity. These polders are equipped with sluice gates for water to drain out and intake into the polders. Each sluice has its own catchment area, defined by the elevation and connectivity with canal systems that carry fresh or saline water from surrounding rivers or streams. The sluice gates operation is influenced by in-polder water management for crop cultivation, diurnal tidal dynamics, and the seasonal variations of saline and fresh water in the peripheral river networks. During the dry season, limited flows in the lower Ganges River allow seawater to push inland, causing saltwater intrusion in the peripheral rivers until the rainy season. Community-coordinated sluice gate operations can improve water management, facilitating timely drainage and irrigation, which is essential for high-yielding rice and subsequent dry-season crops. To address these challenges, a multi-variate LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model was employed to forecast salinity levels in rivers near 29 sluice gates in a polder near Khulna City in southwest Bangladesh. Utilizing salinity data from July 2011 to December 2022, the models were trained (2011-18) and validated (2018-20) with covariates of discharge, water level, and an upstream reference station. A hierarchical variable additive approach was used to sequentially estimate salinity from upstream to downstream. The NSE was over 0.90 and PBIAS under 5% for all sluice gate locations, confirming accuracy in reconstructing the time series. For forecast testing, the 2020-22 dataset also showed significant confirmation with NSE values over 0.90 and PBIAS under 10%. With readily available input data, the developed salinity forecast model can effectively capture annual and seasonal salinity fluctuations along all sluice gate locations. These forecasting capabilities can potentially identify critical seasonal windows for sluice gate operations, giving the farmers in the polder a 30-day lead time for freshwater intake for irrigation and starting agricultural operations in the aman season.
Crop evapotranspiration dynamics in the Ganges and Mekong deltas
(Abstract, 2024-12-09) Matheswaran, Karthikeyan; Puvanenthirarajah, Suvasthigha; Jampani, Mahesh; Sena, Dipaka Ranjan
Asian Mega Deltas (AMD) are food baskets providing livelihoods for farmers and food security for millions. In recent years, many countries have been facing significant pressures to balance sustainable resource use and confront climate change impacts and increasing demands from population growth. In the Ganges and Mekong Deltas, these imminent challenges and anthropogenic pressures are more severe due to increasing pressure to enhance the productive use of land and water resources. The growing variability in water availability is caused by climate change and decreased freshwater flows from upstream. Continuous estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) are essential for evaluating the productivity of agriculture areas in these deltas, but these estimates are often not readily available. In this study, we derived monthly ET in the Ganges and Mekong deltas using remote sensing-based data and an energy balance model to assess its trends. We used the Google Earth Engine (GEE) version of the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model with inputs from ERA5 Land meteorological data and LANDSAT 8 and 9 satellite images covering the period from 2014 to 2024. Due to heavy cloud cover during the monsoon season, a gap-filling process was used to produce seamless monthly ET estimates for these two deltas. The ET estimates were aggregated based on land cover types to determine trends in agricultural water use during both the monsoon and non-monsoon seasons. In areas where information about the crop types is available, like in the Mekong Delta, the ET estimates were further aggregated for specific main crop types. Initial results showed an increasing trend in ET at the regional level, indicating intensified agricultural activities within the two assessed deltas. The ET estimates produced from our study will serve as a basis for evaluating the land and water productivity of the deltas, demonstrating the scalability of remote sensing data and energy-based models in estimating ET fluxes at various scales and assessing their trends in different land cover areas.
Evaluating climate change impacts and seasonal dynamics in Senegal to predict crop yields and develop early warning signals
(Abstract, 2024-12-13) Panjwani, Shweta; Jampani, Mahesh; Amarnath, Giriraj; Sambou, Mame Henriette Astou
Food security has become a critical issue in Senegal due to agricultural losses from climate-related risks and the growing population. In recent years, several studies have reported crop yield losses as a result of seasonal climate variability and extreme events, but crop-wise in-depth analysis is lacking. In this context, we performed district-wise statistical and spatial extent analysis for major growing crops using earth observation and agronomic data from the government to estimate crop-wise correlation. Further, regression analysis was performed for major crops, such as maize and groundnut, using satellite-based climate and vegetation data and observed yield data over a 12-year period. Our results suggested that maize and groundnut crops are mainly distributed in all agroecological zones except the Niayes zone and Senegal River valley in terms of cultivated area and harvested crop yield. We found that seasonal rainfall, particularly from May to September, is highly correlated with the yield, and a 10-20% decrease in seasonal rainfall can lead to crop losses. Additionally, the impact of seasonal rainfall may differ across districts due to climate variability, the onset of monsoon, and cropping seasons. We used the best-fit combinations of rainfall and NDVI and machine-learning models to predict crop yield for the upcoming season for major crop growing districts, with an accuracy (R2) ranging from 0.6 to 0.8 and a one-month lag to the harvest period. The overall goal is to integrate the predictive modeling results into early warning systems such as CGIAR AWARE, which could enhance Senegal's agricultural resilience to climate change and inform decision-makers to take early action.
Evaluating the impact of climate variability and water hazards on vector-borne disease patterns to develop early warning signals
(Abstract, 2024-12-12) Jampani, Mahesh; Amarnath, Giriraj
In recent decades, the effects of climate change have been profound, affecting precipitation, temperature trends, and hydrological cycles, thereby influencing the prevalence of water and vector-borne diseases. Specifically, it is becoming more evident that mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue are prevalent with seasonal dynamics. Understanding the complex dynamics to develop effective measures and interventions and to mitigate health risks associated with water hazards and climate variability is crucial. The current research highlights the impacts of climate change with case studies from Senegal in West Africa on malaria prevalence and Sri Lanka in South Asia on dengue prevalence. These two case studies utilized earth observation and recorded case data to evaluate the intrinsic links between water, climate, disease prevalence, and health risks using statistical and spatial analysis and predictive modeling. Both case studies demonstrate the interplay of water-climate-health nexus, emphasizing the importance of climate and seasonal patterns in spreading vector-borne diseases. Changes in precipitation, temperature patterns, alternate wetting and drying conditions, and extreme events like floods show visible patterns of disease prevalence, which can create favorable environments for the breeding and proliferation of disease-carrying mosquitoes. In Senegal, changes in rainfall patterns and seasonality have a strong influence on the distribution of malaria, potentially exposing new populations in specific seasons. Similarly, the prevalence of dengue fever is higher in Sri Lanka in wet regions, and flooding can also create suitable habitats for the Aedes mosquitoes that are responsible for transmitting the virus. The research findings underscore the importance of seasonal trends and predictive analytics in developing early warning systems that can alert health authorities to early action and minimize health risks. Overall, this research sheds light on the influence of climate change on vector-borne diseases and contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the interconnectedness between water, climate, and human health for developing early warning signals.
Integrated socio-hydrological dynamics and stakeholder views to develop conceptual water flows and salinity patterns for a polder system in coastal Bangladesh
(Abstract, 2024-12-12) Jampani, Mahesh; Mizan, Syed Adil; Hasib, Md. R.; Nesaruddin, Md.; Mondal, M. K.; Sena, Dipaka Ranjan; Mazid-UL Haque, T.; Alam, R.; Matheswaran, Karthikeyan
Polder systems in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh sustain intensive agricultural production and the livelihoods of about eight million people. These low-lying islands, composed mainly of alluvial sediment deposits, are critical in reducing environmental vulnerabilities against coastal erosion, flood inundation, and saltwater intrusion. The anthropogenic pressures from humans have significantly altered natural hydrological processes in this delta system, leading to numerous emerging problems. These challenges include the evolution of river channels and floodplains, water logging, sea-level rise, tidal surges, and salinity intrusion, all of which impact crop yields, agricultural productivity, and freshwater availability. With more than 160 polders spread across the region, they are predominantly used for rice cultivation in the wet season and rabi crop cultivation in the dry season. Our research aims to understand these complex dynamics of the polder system by appraising the stakeholders’ perspectives and socio-hydrological characteristics of a polder near Khulna in coastal Bangladesh. We employed a range of primary and secondary data sources, including hydrological and water quality data, inputs from government stakeholders through a workshop, and farmers' views via semi-structured surveys, and reviewed relevant literature to analyze polder heterogeneity and social dynamics. Our findings highlight the complex interplay of water availability, water use, seasonal variability, and farmers' and government stakeholder perceptions within the polder system. These insights provide a foundation for implementing a comprehensive socio-hydrological framework, which is crucial for addressing the challenges faced by the Ganges delta region. Furthermore, the results provide valuable insights into mechanisms influencing water balance, saline water intrusion or intake, crop production, livelihood and seasonal cropping practices, and dependency on groundwater during the dry season. These results can aid decision-makers in enhancing water and salinity management in these polders.
Modeling groundwater flow and salinity dynamics for developing polder management strategies in coastal Bangladesh
(Abstract, 2024-12-11) Mizan, Syed Adil; Jampani, Mahesh; Rahman, Md. A.; Hasib, Md. R.; Sena, Dipaka Ranjan; Mondal, M. K.; Alam, R.; Matheswaran, Karthikeyan
Coastal Bangladesh in the Ganges Delta is comprised of polders, which are unique hydrological boundaries that are crucial for the livelihoods of farmers and local dwellers. These polder systems are facing severe water scarcity for agricultural use in the dry season, and the shallow aquifer system is often saline because of sea level rise, tidal impacts, and incremental groundwater use during Rabi for irrigation. Integrated management options are needed for the polder systems to optimize the salinity conditions. In this context, a comprehensive groundwater flow and salinity transport model was developed for a polder near Khulna City in Bangladesh. Water and salinity dynamics were assessed to develop alternate polder management scenarios. The modeling framework involved coupling MODFLOW and SEAWAT models to evaluate salinity ingress to the aquifer due to tidal interactions and groundwater abstraction. The polder landscape in the Ganges delta system is aligned with a natural hydrological river boundary. The interplay between the polders and the surrounding river system is essential for maintaining the ecological balance of the delta. The controlled water levels within the polders support rice cultivation, aquaculture, and other agricultural activities, while the natural rainfall and tidal hydrology aid in replenishing the local aquifers. Aquifer parameters and geometry, water flows in the polder, climate, hydrology, and water quality data were collected from the field and also obtained from secondary sources. The model encompassed a detailed conceptualization of the polder aquifer system, including the dynamics of surface water-groundwater interactions with tidal intrusion induced salinity gradient. The calibrated model showed good agreement with observed or adopted and simulated groundwater levels within the polder. These findings highlight the significant influence of tidal dynamics in the peripheral rivers on seasonal variations in groundwater flow patterns and salinity dynamics. This model, with its robustness, can serve as a reliable tool for stakeholders and policymakers to design sustainable groundwater management strategies for the polder systems.
Securing water for all: managing physical and economic scarcity in the Anthropocene poster
(Abstract, 2024-12-11) Jampani, Mahesh; Müller, A. B.; Gebrechorkos, S. H.
The Anthropocene, characterized by significant human impacts, raises unprecedented water management challenges due to physical and economic water scarcity. Climate change exacerbates the problem by altering the hydrological cycle and increasing extreme events' frequency. Physical water scarcity concerns insufficient water to meet human and environmental needs, while economic scarcity results from infrastructure and financial deficiencies. This session explores the complex dynamics of water scarcity and its interconnectedness with hydrology, climate, pollution, health, and resource allocation, highlighting solutions and research gaps.
REHYDRATE - an international HELPING working group to REtrieve historical HYDRologic dATa and Estimates
(Abstract, 2024-04-14) Bertola, M.; Mazzoglio, P.; Gelebo, A. H.; Shobha, A. R.; Jampani, Mahesh; Singh, S.; Prieto, C.; Panda, S.; Zaifoglu, H.; Bhowmik, A.; Guesri, M.; Dietrich, S.; Tegegn, Z.; Viglione, A.; Bonaccorso, B.; Claps, P.; Manfreda, S.; Koren, G.; Moulds, S.; Ganapathy, A.; Pizarro, A.; Lešcešen, I.; Jorquera, J.; Morbidelli, R.; Nearing, G.; Treppiedi, D.; Alexander, S.; Gilite, K.; Dallan, E.; Otieno, W.; Houteta, D. K.; Filipova, V.; Rosselló-Geli, J.; Koriche, S.; Faerber, C.; Vidal, J.-P.; Akpoti, Komlavi; Vincent, K.; Aslam, H.; Musau, J.; Domeneghetti, A.; Rahmad, R.; Moccia, B.; Badji, A.; Ceola, S.; Jean-Emmanuel, P.; Roy, T.; Nandikanti, S. S. S.; Zhang, Q.; Chaffe, P.; Mendiondo, E. M.; Cudennec, C.; Fan, X.; Gargouri, E.; Izzeddine, M.; Korichi, A.; Abdessamed, D.; Merheb, M.; Lamia, R.; Slimane, B.; De Smeth, K.; Goody, N.; Newcomer, M.; Slama, F.; Abdeldjabbar, B. S.; Whitaker, A.; Surendran, U.; Chauhan, G.; Montanari, A.; Chen, A.; Tan, X.; Li, Y.; Wu, S.; Yang, Y.; Yao, J.; Payne, T.
Historical hydrological observations are often stored in printed documents and volumes of archives worldwide. This makes them practically inaccessible and unusable for modern hydrological studies as well as puts them at risk of permanent loss due to the deterioration of their medium. In addition to the intrinsic value of rescuing past observations, having access to historical data is essential for understanding better the complexity and changes in the hydrological cycle and its extremes. Several data rescue initiatives exist, but the efforts are highly fragmented in space and time. Current tools for data digitization include optical character recognition (OCR) software and manual transcription. The latter is often carried out through participatory citizen science projects. The use of OCR software is cheap and fast, but it still requires a considerable amount of manual work due to the diversity of the documents, and its accuracy is, to date, not always acceptable. Manual transcription is more accurate, but extremely resource-intensive. For these reasons, there is a general need for better and less costly methods for hydrological data rescue. New tools are becoming available, and new technologies are developing rapidly. In response to these challenges, the REHYDRATE Working Group has been proposed as part of the IAHS HELPING Science for Water Solutions decade in summer 2023 (https://iahs.info/uploads/HELPING/WG%20Proposal%20REHYDRATE.pdf). The Working Group aims to connect scientists engaged in data rescue, fostering a collaborative community to exchange knowledge, experiences, and best practices in hydrological data rescue and digitization. The ultimate objective is to promote and facilitate hydrologic data digitization initiatives and to ensure their accessibility through open-access repositories. Approximately 80 scientists from diverse geographical regions have joined the Working Group at the time of writing this abstract. Initial meetings were organized in late 2023, and the group is currently working towards its first short-term objective: conducting a comprehensive state-of-theart assessment of methods, initiatives, and articles related to the digitization of historical hydrological data.
Groundwater and urban development
(Abstract, 2024-09-08) Schirmer, M.; Hartog, N.; Nlend, B.; Fallas, H.; Dassargues, A.; Cetinkaya, I. D.; Jampani, Mahesh; Gogu, R.
Urban groundwater is an endangered resource as urban land use exerts enormous and very complex pressures on this resource. This session will provide an overview of urban groundwater studies in the context of urban water management, advances in hydrogeological investigation, monitoring and modelling techniques for urban areas, and highlight the challenges. Techniques for measuring pollutant concentrations, water balancing, and pollutant load estimations will be presented. To fully understand and quantify the complex urban water systems, we need to further develop our methods and combine them with new modelling approaches. In addition, it is essential to enter into an in-depth dialogue with people from urban planning, urban drainage and politics as well as the general public to raise awareness of groundwater. Only in this way will we be able to sustainably manage our water resources in and around our urban areas and incorporate them into future urban planning. For this session we invite especially but not exclusively contributions on the following subtopics: 1. Sustainable management of urban groundwater resource, including water supply from urban groundwater, urban groundwater resource assessment and system analysis, urban groundwater protection, soil and groundwater contamination and remediation, urban water balance, drainage and recharge 2. Groundwater interactions with ecology and the built environment, including dewatering during urban construction, groundwater interactions with urban structures (e.g. subsidence, foundations, infrastructure) 3. Urban groundwater as source and storage for sustainable heating and cooling, including the use of groundwater source heat pump systems, ground source heat pump systems, aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) systems.
Circular bioeconomy for sustainable resource management and livelihood improvement in Ethiopia
(Conference Paper, 2024-09-11) Bodach, Susanne; Alegbeleye, Oluwadara; Taron, Avinandan; Hagos, Fitsum
Ethiopia faces a growing challenge of balancing natural resource utilisation with long-term sustainability. Its linear economic model leads to unsustainable waste generation from agriculture, urban populations, and the industry sectors. This paper explores the potential of a circular bioeconomy (CBE) as a solution. By promoting closed-loop systems that minimise waste and maximise resource use, CBE offers a pathway for Ethiopia to achieve sustainable resource management, economic growth, and better livelihood opportunities. CBE business models create valuable products such as organic fertiliser, biochar, bioenergy, and alternative proteins. CBE practices provide new income opportunities for farmers and urban dwellers and reduce the country’s reliance on virgin resources, chemical fertiliser, and non-renewable energy while addressing environmental pollution and soil depletion. Major organic waste streams in Ethiopia that could be recovered and reused include agricultural crop residues, animal manure, human excrement, and industrial sludge. Addressing the vast untapped potential of resource recovery from waste, this study analyses opportunities and challenges associated with promoting CBE in Ethiopia, focusing on analysing the regulatory framework, business licensing and registration procedure, government support, access to finance, and business support services. The paper employs a comprehensive desk review of peer-reviewed literature complemented by grey literature to capture recent trends or non-traditional research aspects. Semi-structured interviews with sector experts were conducted to fill information gaps. Key findings of this study are that a robust regulatory framework, streamlined business registration, and access to finance are critical for creating an enabling investment climate for CBE. Government support, business networks, and support services can empower CBE ventures and contribute to sustainable resource management. By focusing on policy interventions that combine sustainable waste management and livelihood creation, CBE can significantly contribute to achieving a more sustainable development path for all Ethiopians.
The stability-and-peace accelerator: an overview
(Conference Paper, 2023-12-31) Dahl, Hauke; Jacobs-Mata, Inga
For the 1.5 billion people living in Fragile and Conflict Affected Settings (FCAs), livelihood challenges and rising food, fertiliser, and input prices are compounded by climate change, unsustainable resource consumption, poor governance, and weak social cohesion . Economic disruptions, such as those caused by COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, are sparking the risk of food and nutrition crises and poverty and conflict traps. Global hunger, remained relatively unchanged from 2021 to 2022 but is still far above pre-COVID-19- pandemic levels, affecting around 9.2 percent of the world population in 2022 compared with 7.9 percent in 2019. It is estimated that between 691 and 783 million people in the world faced hunger in 2022. Considering the midrange (about 735 million), 122 million more people faced hunger in 2022 than in 2019, before the global pandemic. Given the compounding challenges, the purpose of the Stability-and-Peace Accelerator programme is to identify and enable the scaling of high-impact, high potential innovations which promote the resilience of Food, Land and Water Systems (FLWS) in Fragile and Conflict Affected Settings (FCAs) in migrant and host communities — thus enabling food and nutrition security, climate resilience, social cohesion, and sustainability in emergency and humanitarian settings. In order to achieve this purpose, the programme will source high potential innovations, award grants to said innovations, promote capacity building of innovations with a local footprint, and harness the immense technical expertise of CGIAR scientists to support the innovations. Through a partnership with the WFP Innovation Accelerator, the programme can leverage cutting-edge research, data-driven solutions, and further best practices in food systems innovation, food security, sustainable resource management and climate security. This collaboration enables a refined comprehension of the challenges faced in fragile settings, allowing for context-specific interventions that can effectively address issues like food insecurity, land degradation, and water scarcity. By accessing the specialised knowledge within the Fragility Conflict and Migration initiative and additional CGIAR actors, the partnership can ensure the likelihood of success for scaling scientifically validated, climatesmart solutions in the sector, as well as to provide the science-based evidence for inclusive sustainability impact.
Heat wave hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for India [Abstract only]
(Conference Paper, 2023-12-14) Sahana, V.; Suresh, N.; Mondal, A.; Mishra, T.
Global warming and rising temperatures have increased the occurrence and severity of heat waves across the globe. In India, the heatwave situation could break human survivability, thus jeopardizing food security, public health, as well as economic productivity of the country. With the growing population and as a developing economy, heatwave risk assessment in India is at most important and the analysis must account for changing climate and socio-economic conditions for planning effective heat wave mitigation and adaptation policies. We present a comprehensive district-level analysis of heatwave risk assessment considering the hazard and vulnerability aspects with a focus on regions that are prone to pre-monsoon heatwaves. The heatwave magnitude index is used to compute heatwave hazard at a pentad scale (5 years). Further, the robust aggregation method - Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method is used for heatwave vulnerability assessment. Health, infrastructure, technological, financial, social and exposure indicators from National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS) and other remote sensing datasets are used for mapping heatwave vulnerability. In addition, the study identifies the hotspots of heatwave risk and their driving factors to decipher the individual roles in enhancing the risk of heatwaves and associated impacts such as mortality and health degradation. Therefore, our analysis can inform the climate and heat action plans of municipalities and corporations.
Climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only]
(Conference Paper, 2023-12-21) Jampani, Mahesh; Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga
Dengue is a mosquito and vector-borne viral disease, and climate variability and extremes like floods and droughts have an increasing influence on dengue prevalence in the global south, especially in Sri Lanka. A rising number of dengue cases has been reported yearly since 2009 in Sri Lanka. Many studies reported a strong correlation between climate change and dengue prevalence, but evaluating the underlying causing factors is often complex. In this context, we analysed and evaluated the weekly dengue cases with respect to climate variability and extremes over the last decade for all the districts of Sri Lanka. This study elucidated the seasonality of the occurrence of dengue cases and the risk probability of dengue prevalence. We used satellite remote sensing datasets to extract various climate indicators like rainfall, and further satellite datasets are validated with station datasets for accuracy assessment. We performed integrated statistical analysis to evaluate and predict the probability of occurrence of dengue cases with respect to regional climate variability and extremes. Our initial results suggest that seasonality and rainfall play a critical role in Sri Lanka, especially the high probability of reported dengue prevalence in the western province of Sri Lanka. We also found that monsoonal dynamics, rainfall intensities, and dry and wet conditions could significantly influence the increased risk of dengue. The typical high number of dengue cases occurs between May to August and November to January seasons, depending on the climate zones where the districts are located. Overall, our results aim to feed into understanding the risk probability and seasonal dynamics of dengue prevalence, which can provide insights into the seasonal occurrence of dengue prevalence for control and suitable prevention measures.
Distribution of drought events and their impact on child malnutrition in Senegal [Abstract only]
(Conference Paper, 2023-06-14) Jampani, Mahesh; Sambou, Mame Henriette Astou; Alahacoon, Niranga; Amarnath, Giriraj
Climate change has become a significant threat to Western African countries in recent decades, including Senegal. Further, there has been an increasing occurrence of extreme events such as droughts. Droughts, directly and indirectly, have detrimental impacts on human health and often trigger nutritional status in the respective region. Children under the age of five are more vulnerable to Droughts in terms of malnutrition. In Senegal also, drought has unforeseen impacts on health systems and impacts the nutritional dynamics of children. Besides, There has been limited understanding of how drought occurrence and frequency will influence the nutritional status of children in Senegal. In this context, we looked at spatial and temporal patterns of drought conditions in relation to nutritional status to understand, examine and explore the stunting and wasting cases and undernutrition status in children under five years of age. We analyzed all the provinces of Senegal using satellite-based datasets and drought indices in combination with demographic health surveys (USAID DHS) and Senegalese national health survey datasets. The DHS datasets are yearly based and used to evaluate the long-term patterns, whereas Senegalese government data is monthly and used to evaluate any seasonal dynamics. We employed integrated statistical methods, including factor analysis, spatial autocorrelation, bivariate maps and cross-correlation, to draw the interrelationships and spatiotemporal patterns. The research results convey that there is a significant spatial and temporal relationship between drought and underweight. Further, a significant correlation exists between stunting and wasting cases of children with drought events in the following years. Overall, our research will provide an improved understanding of the vulnerability of children’s health associated with drought events and can help local stakeholders and policymakers to understand the malnutritional status with respect to climate change in Senegal and to develop appropriate policy interventions.
Climate variability and extremes impact on seasonal occurrence patterns of malaria cases in Senegal [Abstract only]
(Conference Paper, 2023-06-14) Jampani, Mahesh; Panjwani, Shweta; Ghosh, Surajit; Sambou, Mame Henriette Astou; Amarnath, Giriraj
The increasing frequency of floods and droughts has compounding impacts on Malaria prevalence in West Africa, especially in Senegal. Malaria is a mosquito-borne viral disease and has detrimental impacts on health systems in the global south. Over the last decade, it was continuously reported a rising number of malaria cases year by year in Senegal. Many studies reported a strong correlation between climate variability and extremes and Malaria prevalence, but it is often tricky to evaluate the underlying causing factors. In this context, we analyzed and evaluated the monthly malaria cases with respect to climate variability and extremes over the last 12 years for all the provinces of Senegal. We emphasized our study to elucidate the seasonality of the occurrence of malaria cases and possible and probable underlying socio-economic factors combined with biophysical factors. We used satellite remote sensing datasets to extract various indicators related to rainfall, temperature, drought and flood. We performed integrated statistical analysis in combination with machine learning models (random forest, neural network, and bayesian hierarchical models) to evaluate and predict the probability of occurrence of malaria cases with respect to regional climate variability and extremes. Our initial results suggest that seasonality and accumulated rainfall play a critical role in Senegal for Malaria prevalence. The parabolic curve of malaria cases occurs between May to January, where September to November is the recorded high number of cases depending on the provinces that are located in different climate zones. Overall, our fine-tuned predictive modelling results aim to feed into an early warning platform to provide informed decisions to local policymakers, which can bestow insights into the seasonal occurrence of malaria prevalence for control and prevention measures.
Hydrological characterization and social dynamics of polders in the Bengal Delta [Abstract only]
(Conference Paper, 2023-12-16) Jampani, Mahesh; Matheswaran, Karthikeyan
Polders in the floodplains of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh play a critical role in supporting intensive agricultural production and the livelihoods of around eight million people. Polderization is promoted to reduce environmental vulnerabilities against flood inundation, coastal erosion, and salinity intrusion. These land areas are low-lying islands consisting mainly of alluvial sediment deposits, and almost half (~1.2 million ha) of the coastal zone in the region is polderized. Agriculture is the primary reason for the polderization of the region, where paddy rice is the major irrigated crop. Around 139 polders in Bangladesh spread across the Gangetic-Brahmaputra delta region, and they altered the delicate balance between human activity and the floodplains' natural hydrological process, resulting in numerous evolving problems. These include the geomorphological evolution of the river channels and flood plains, water logging and drainage congestion within the polder system, sea-level rise, tidal surges, and salinity intrusion. Coastal and inland salinity is a significant problem in these polders, often influencing crop yields and further agricultural productivity and freshwater availability. We explicitly look at two polders to evaluate the distinct socio-hydrological characteristics of these systems. We used several secondary data sources and literature (grey and scientific) to evaluate the hydrological characteristics, groundwater heterogeneity and social dynamics to understand and evaluate the underlying mechanisms and intrinsic links between systems that influence water balance, saline water intrusion, and crop production. The initial results highlight the complex dynamics of the polder system, often influenced by water availability, irrigated water use, seasonality, and, above all, stakeholders' perceptions. Overall, this work provides an improved understanding of the biophysical dynamics and social linkages and sets the basis for implementing a larger detailed socio-hydrological framework.

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