Evaluating the impact of climate variability and water hazards on vector-borne disease patterns to develop early warning signals

Jampani, Mahesh; Amarnath, Giriraj. 2024. Evaluating the impact of climate variability and water hazards on vector-borne disease patterns to develop early warning signals [Abstract only]. Paper presented at the American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting 2024 (AGU24) on What’s Next for Science, Washington, DC, USA, 9-13 December 2024. 1p.

In recent decades, the effects of climate change have been profound, affecting precipitation, temperature trends, and hydrological cycles, thereby influencing the prevalence of water and vector-borne diseases. Specifically, it is becoming more evident that mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue are prevalent with seasonal dynamics. Understanding the complex dynamics to develop effective measures and interventions and to mitigate health risks associated with water hazards and climate variability is crucial. The current research highlights the impacts of climate change with case studies from Senegal in West Africa on malaria prevalence and Sri Lanka in South Asia on dengue prevalence. These two case studies utilized earth observation and recorded case data to evaluate the intrinsic links between water, climate, disease prevalence, and health risks using statistical and spatial analysis and predictive modeling. Both case studies demonstrate the interplay of water-climate-health nexus, emphasizing the importance of climate and seasonal patterns in spreading vector-borne diseases. Changes in precipitation, temperature patterns, alternate wetting and drying conditions, and extreme events like floods show visible patterns of disease prevalence, which can create favorable environments for the breeding and proliferation of disease-carrying mosquitoes. In Senegal, changes in rainfall patterns and seasonality have a strong influence on the distribution of malaria, potentially exposing new populations in specific seasons. Similarly, the prevalence of dengue fever is higher in Sri Lanka in wet regions, and flooding can also create suitable habitats for the Aedes mosquitoes that are responsible for transmitting the virus. The research findings underscore the importance of seasonal trends and predictive analytics in developing early warning systems that can alert health authorities to early action and minimize health risks. Overall, this research sheds light on the influence of climate change on vector-borne diseases and contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the interconnectedness between water, climate, and human health for developing early warning signals.