Modelling groundwater futures under climatic uncertainty for local policy and planning: a case of quantification of groundwater resources at sub-regional level in the Ganges basin

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cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Water Management Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Centeren
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Rice Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden
cg.contributor.initiativeTransforming Agrifood Systems in South Asia
cg.contributor.programAcceleratorPolicy Innovations
cg.coverage.countryIndia
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2IN
cg.creator.identifierSHREYA CHAKRABORTY: 0009-0009-3611-8135en
cg.creator.identifierAlison Laing: 0000-0001-8984-7029en
cg.creator.identifierAnton Urfels: 0000-0003-2920-8721en
cg.creator.identifierAlok Sikka: 0000-0001-9843-9617
cg.creator.identifierTimothy Joseph Krupnik: 0000-0001-6973-0106en
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102315en
cg.identifier.projectIWMI - C-0017
cg.identifier.projectIWMI - C-0057
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.actionAreaResilient Agrifood Systems
cg.subject.impactAreaNutrition, health and food security
dc.contributor.authorMizan, Syed Adilen
dc.contributor.authorSikka, Alok K.en
dc.contributor.authorChakraborty, Shreyaen
dc.contributor.authorLaing, Alison M.en
dc.contributor.authorUrfels, Antonen
dc.contributor.authorKrupnik, Timothy J.en
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-26T22:05:29Zen
dc.date.available2025-01-26T22:05:29Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/170015
dc.titleModelling groundwater futures under climatic uncertainty for local policy and planning: a case of quantification of groundwater resources at sub-regional level in the Ganges basinen
dcterms.abstractStudy region: Nalanda district, Bihar, India, a sub-tropical region, and part of middle Ganga River basin. Study focus: Assessing the impacts of climate change on aquifers' seasonal replenishment is thus crucial for planning for future local food and water security. This study looks at how future groundwater levels will be affected by climate change in relation to important functioning thresholds that are typical for aquifers that replenish periodically. New hydrological insights for the region The result shows the projected groundwater levels from 2018 to 2060 using the CMIP6 global climate model, using rainfall data from three GCMs selected based on their different projected scenarios of levels of high intensity rainfall. Given the key role of low intensity rainfall in groundwater recharge, we find that incorporating rainfall intensity in groundwater models can be crucial for more robust projections. Our findings also show that higher total rainfall does not necessarily equate to higher groundwater recharge or lesser groundwater declines. Instead, the least groundwater declines were found in projections, where relatively higher total rainfall was also associated with lower high intensity rainfall periods, highlighting the need for combining and comparing varied SSPs and climate models for accurate future trends. At the sub-regional level, we find that climate change could lead to maximum groundwater loss of ∼ 0.8 km3 in 42 years in Nalanda district. Current trend analysis (2000–2018) already shows a negative annual groundwater balance. Even assuming no changes to current groundwater extraction rates, climate change will result in decreased groundwater levels and storage. The projection trends also reveal distinct short-term, medium-term, and long-term shifts which offer different policy windows for managing and governing the groundwater resources.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2025-03-17en
dcterms.bibliographicCitationMizan, S. A., Sikka, A., Chakraborty, S., Laing, A. M., Urfels, A., & Krupnik, T. J. (2025) Modelling groundwater futures under climatic uncertainty for local policy and planning: a case of quantification of groundwater resources at sub-regional level in the Ganges basin. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 59, 102315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102315 en
dcterms.issued2025-06en
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherElsevieren
dcterms.subjectgroundwateren
dcterms.subjectmodellingen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectrainfallen
dcterms.typeJournal article

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