Climate variability and extremes impact on seasonal occurrence patterns of malaria cases in Senegal [Abstract only]

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cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Water Management Instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationWest African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Useen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Abomey-Calavien_US
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden_US
cg.contributor.initiativeClimate Resilienceen_US
cg.coverage.countrySenegalen_US
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2SNen_US
cg.coverage.regionWestern Africaen_US
cg.creator.identifierMahesh Jampani: 0000-0002-8925-719Xen_US
cg.creator.identifierShweta Panjwani: 0000-0002-5558-5830en_US
cg.creator.identifierSurajit Ghosh: 0000-0002-3928-2135en_US
cg.creator.identifierGiriraj Amarnath: 0000-0002-7390-9800en_US
cg.identifier.iwmilibraryH052465en_US
cg.identifier.urlhttps://agu.confex.com/agu/22chapman1/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1233223en_US
dc.contributor.authorJampani, Maheshen_US
dc.contributor.authorPanjwani, Shwetaen_US
dc.contributor.authorGhosh, Surajiten_US
dc.contributor.authorSambou, Mame Henriette Astouen_US
dc.contributor.authorAmarnath, Girirajen_US
dc.date.accessioned2023-12-22T10:32:13Zen_US
dc.date.available2023-12-22T10:32:13Zen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/135850en_US
dc.titleClimate variability and extremes impact on seasonal occurrence patterns of malaria cases in Senegal [Abstract only]en_US
dcterms.abstractThe increasing frequency of floods and droughts has compounding impacts on Malaria prevalence in West Africa, especially in Senegal. Malaria is a mosquito-borne viral disease and has detrimental impacts on health systems in the global south. Over the last decade, it was continuously reported a rising number of malaria cases year by year in Senegal. Many studies reported a strong correlation between climate variability and extremes and Malaria prevalence, but it is often tricky to evaluate the underlying causing factors. In this context, we analyzed and evaluated the monthly malaria cases with respect to climate variability and extremes over the last 12 years for all the provinces of Senegal. We emphasized our study to elucidate the seasonality of the occurrence of malaria cases and possible and probable underlying socio-economic factors combined with biophysical factors. We used satellite remote sensing datasets to extract various indicators related to rainfall, temperature, drought and flood. We performed integrated statistical analysis in combination with machine learning models (random forest, neural network, and bayesian hierarchical models) to evaluate and predict the probability of occurrence of malaria cases with respect to regional climate variability and extremes. Our initial results suggest that seasonality and accumulated rainfall play a critical role in Senegal for Malaria prevalence. The parabolic curve of malaria cases occurs between May to January, where September to November is the recorded high number of cases depending on the provinces that are located in different climate zones. Overall, our fine-tuned predictive modelling results aim to feed into an early warning platform to provide informed decisions to local policymakers, which can bestow insights into the seasonal occurrence of malaria prevalence for control and prevention measures.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationJampani, Mahesh; Panjwani, Shweta; Ghosh, Surajit; Sambou, Mame Henriette Astou; Amarnath, Giriraj. 2023. Climate variability and extremes impact on seasonal occurrence patterns of malaria cases in Senegal [Abstract only]. Paper presented at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Chapman Conference on Climate and Health for Africa, Washington, D. C., USA, 12-15 June 2023. 2p.en_US
dcterms.extent2p.en_US
dcterms.issued2023-06-14en_US
dcterms.languageenen_US
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserveden_US
dcterms.subjectclimate variabilityen_US
dcterms.subjectmalariaen_US
dcterms.subjectvector-borne diseasesen_US
dcterms.subjectfloodingen_US
dcterms.subjectdroughten_US
dcterms.subjectremote sensingen_US
dcterms.subjectsatellitesen_US
dcterms.subjectrainfallen_US
dcterms.subjectmachine learningen_US
dcterms.subjectmodelsen_US
dcterms.typeConference Paperen_US

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