The changing nature of human-forced hydroclimatic risks across Africa

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationMassachusetts Institute of Technologyen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Food Policy Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.crpPolicies, Institutions, and Marketsen
cg.contributor.donorUnited States Department of Energyen
cg.contributor.donorUnited States Environmental Protection Agencyen
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden
cg.contributor.initiativeForesighten
cg.coverage.regionAfricaen
cg.creator.identifierTimothy Thomas: 0000-0002-7951-8157en
cg.howPublishedGrey Literatureen
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Foresight and Policy Modeling Uniten
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Systems Transformation - Transformation Strategiesen
cg.identifier.publicationRankNot rankeden
cg.identifier.urlhttps://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/18066en
cg.number368en
cg.placeCambridge, MAen
cg.reviewStatusInternal Reviewen
cg.subject.actionAreaSystems Transformationen
dc.contributor.authorSchlosser, C. Adamen
dc.contributor.authorSokolov, Andreien
dc.contributor.authorGao, Xiangen
dc.contributor.authorThomas, Timothy S.en
dc.contributor.authorStrzepek, Kenen
dc.date.accessioned2023-08-30T20:40:10Zen
dc.date.available2023-08-30T20:40:10Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/131692
dc.titleThe changing nature of human-forced hydroclimatic risks across Africaen
dcterms.abstractWe present results from large ensembles of projected 21st century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature over Africa and selected sub-continental regions. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the 21st century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation exists for much of the southern Africa region considered, and this is also compounded by enhanced warming (relative to the global trajectory). Over eastern and western Africa, the preponderance of risk in increased precipitation change is seen. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5˚C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within Africa toward the end of this century (2065-2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over much Africa could be delayed by 30 years, and in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen
dcterms.available2023-08-28en
dcterms.bibliographicCitationSchlosser, C. Adam; Sokolov, Andrei; Gao, Xiang; Thomas, Tim; and Strzepek, Ken. 2023. The changing nature of human-forced hydroclimatic risks across Africa. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Report No. 368. https://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/18066en
dcterms.isPartOfMIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Reporten
dcterms.issued2023en
dcterms.languageenen
dcterms.licenseOtheren
dcterms.publisherMassachusetts Institute of Technologyen
dcterms.replaceshttps://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll5/id/8848en
dcterms.subjectair temperatureen
dcterms.subjectclimateen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectprecipitationen
dcterms.typeReporten

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