Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR single centreen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Food Policy Research Instituteen_US
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden_US
cg.contributor.donorUnited States Agency for International Developmenten_US
cg.contributor.initiativeForesighten_US
cg.coverage.countryBangladeshen_US
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2BDen_US
cg.coverage.regionAsiaen_US
cg.coverage.regionSouthern Asiaen_US
cg.creator.identifierAskar Mukashov: 0000-0002-5171-7760en_US
cg.creator.identifierJames Thurlow: 0000-0003-3414-374Xen_US
cg.howPublishedGrey Literatureen_US
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Foresight and Policy Modeling Uniten_US
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Economywide Risk Assessmenten_US
cg.identifier.publicationRankNot rankeden_US
cg.number6en_US
cg.placeWashington, DCen_US
cg.reviewStatusInternal Reviewen_US
cg.subject.impactAreaClimate adaptation and mitigationen_US
dc.contributor.authorMukashov, Askaren_US
dc.contributor.authorJones, Eleanoren_US
dc.contributor.authorThurlow, Jamesen_US
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-22T16:52:28Zen_US
dc.date.available2025-01-22T16:52:28Zen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/169665en_US
dc.titleBangladesh: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocksen_US
dcterms.abstractThis study explores Bangladesh’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Bangladesh Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various shock scenarios sampled using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market price uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings suggest that potential variation in Bangladesh’s GDP ranges from +0.8 to -1.0 percent to baseline, with domestic climate shocks accounting for 53.7 percent of uncertainty, and remaining 41.7 percent are explained by the volatility of world market prices and Foreign Exchange (FX) flows. At the same time, private con sumption is more uncertain (from +4.0 to -3.5 percent to base), and external factors are the most important risk contributors (70.1 percent is world prices and 2.9 percent is FX flows). Similarly, external factors contribute roughly two-thirds to the potential variation of national poverty and undernourishment rates that fluctuate from -2.4 to +1.8 and –2.2 to +1.9 relative to the baseline rates percentage points respectively. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the Bangladesh economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating a discussion on risk mitigation strategies that include increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production to reduce reliance on high-risk sectors.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_US
dcterms.audienceCGIARen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationMukashov, Askar; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 6. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169665en_US
dcterms.extent14 p.en_US
dcterms.isPartOfEconomywide Risk Assessment Country Briefen_US
dcterms.issued2024-12-30en_US
dcterms.languageenen_US
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0en_US
dcterms.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Instituteen_US
dcterms.relationhttps://www.ifpri.org/project/economywide-risk-assessments/en_US
dcterms.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168723en_US
dcterms.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168167en_US
dcterms.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168180en_US
dcterms.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168183en_US
dcterms.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168174en_US
dcterms.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/158180en_US
dcterms.subjectshocken_US
dcterms.subjecteconomic shocken_US
dcterms.subjectcomputable general equilibrium modelsen_US
dcterms.subjectagricultureen_US
dcterms.subjectmarket pricesen_US
dcterms.subjectmachine learningen_US
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen_US
dcterms.typeBriefen_US

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