Climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only]

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cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Water Management Instituteen_US
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden_US
cg.contributor.initiativeClimate Resilienceen_US
cg.coverage.countrySri Lankaen_US
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2LKen_US
cg.coverage.regionSouthern Asiaen_US
cg.coverage.subregionWestern Provinceen_US
cg.creator.identifierMahesh Jampani: 0000-0002-8925-719Xen_US
cg.creator.identifierGiriraj Amarnath: 0000-0002-7390-9800en_US
cg.creator.identifierNiranga Alahacoon: 0000-0003-0984-5176en_US
cg.identifier.iwmilibraryH052467en_US
cg.identifier.urlhttps://agu.confex.com/agu/fm23/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1451072en_US
dc.contributor.authorJampani, Maheshen_US
dc.contributor.authorAmarnath, Girirajen_US
dc.contributor.authorAlahacoon, Nirangaen_US
dc.date.accessioned2023-12-22T10:54:03Zen_US
dc.date.available2023-12-22T10:54:03Zen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/135854en_US
dc.titleClimate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only]en_US
dcterms.abstractDengue is a mosquito and vector-borne viral disease, and climate variability and extremes like floods and droughts have an increasing influence on dengue prevalence in the global south, especially in Sri Lanka. A rising number of dengue cases has been reported yearly since 2009 in Sri Lanka. Many studies reported a strong correlation between climate change and dengue prevalence, but evaluating the underlying causing factors is often complex. In this context, we analysed and evaluated the weekly dengue cases with respect to climate variability and extremes over the last decade for all the districts of Sri Lanka. This study elucidated the seasonality of the occurrence of dengue cases and the risk probability of dengue prevalence. We used satellite remote sensing datasets to extract various climate indicators like rainfall, and further satellite datasets are validated with station datasets for accuracy assessment. We performed integrated statistical analysis to evaluate and predict the probability of occurrence of dengue cases with respect to regional climate variability and extremes. Our initial results suggest that seasonality and rainfall play a critical role in Sri Lanka, especially the high probability of reported dengue prevalence in the western province of Sri Lanka. We also found that monsoonal dynamics, rainfall intensities, and dry and wet conditions could significantly influence the increased risk of dengue. The typical high number of dengue cases occurs between May to August and November to January seasons, depending on the climate zones where the districts are located. Overall, our results aim to feed into understanding the risk probability and seasonal dynamics of dengue prevalence, which can provide insights into the seasonal occurrence of dengue prevalence for control and suitable prevention measures.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationJampani, Mahesh; Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga. 2023. Climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only]. Paper presented at the American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting 2023 (AGU23), San Francisco, CA, USA and Online, 11-15 December 2023. 2p.en_US
dcterms.extent2p.en_US
dcterms.issued2023-12-21en_US
dcterms.languageenen_US
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserveden_US
dcterms.subjectclimate variabilityen_US
dcterms.subjectrisken_US
dcterms.subjectdengueen_US
dcterms.subjectvector-borne diseasesen_US
dcterms.subjectrainfallen_US
dcterms.subjectfloodingen_US
dcterms.subjectdroughten_US
dcterms.subjectsatellitesen_US
dcterms.subjectremote sensingen_US
dcterms.subjectclimatic zonesen_US
dcterms.typeConference Paperen_US

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