Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: Can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply–demand gap?

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country instituteen_US
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicineen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysisen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Center for Tropical Agricultureen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Abomey-Calavien_US
cg.contributor.donorWorld Banken_US
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden_US
cg.contributor.initiativeClimate Resilienceen_US
cg.coverage.countryGambiaen_US
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2GMen_US
cg.coverage.regionAfricaen_US
cg.coverage.regionWestern Africaen_US
cg.coverage.regionSub-Saharan Africaen_US
cg.creator.identifierAmanda Palazzo: 0000-0001-8167-9403en_US
cg.creator.identifierPetr Havlik: 0000-0001-5551-5085en_US
cg.creator.identifierZakari Ali: 0000-0002-8129-2230en_US
cg.creator.identifierAlcade C. Segnon: 0000-0001-9751-120Xen_US
cg.creator.identifierRobert Zougmore: 0000-0002-6215-4852en_US
cg.creator.identifierPauline Scheelbeek: 0000-0002-6209-2284en_US
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-024-01444-1en_US
cg.isijournalISI Journalen_US
cg.issn1876-4517en_US
cg.issue3en_US
cg.journalFood Securityen_US
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen_US
cg.subject.actionAreaResilient Agrifood Systemsen_US
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatAGRICULTUREen_US
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONen_US
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatMODELINGen_US
cg.subject.impactAreaClimate adaptation and mitigationen_US
cg.subject.sdgSDG 2 - Zero hungeren_US
cg.subject.sdgSDG 13 - Climate actionen_US
cg.volume16en_US
dc.contributor.authorCarr, Tony W.en_US
dc.contributor.authorAddo, Felicityen_US
dc.contributor.authorPalazzo, Amandaen_US
dc.contributor.authorHavlik, Petren_US
dc.contributor.authorPérez-Guzmán, Katyaen_US
dc.contributor.authorAli, Zakarien_US
dc.contributor.authorGreen, Rosemaryen_US
dc.contributor.authorHadida, Genevieveen_US
dc.contributor.authorSegnon, Alcade C.en_US
dc.contributor.authorZougmoré, Roberten_US
dc.contributor.authorScheelbeek, Paulineen_US
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-21T08:59:01Zen_US
dc.date.available2024-05-21T08:59:01Zen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/141961en_US
dc.titleAddressing future food demand in The Gambia: Can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply–demand gap?en_US
dcterms.abstractWith rising demand for food and the threats posed by climate change, The Gambia faces significant challenges in ensuring sufficient and nutritious food for its population. To address these challenges, there is a need to increase domestic food production while limiting deforestation and land degradation. In this study, we modified the FABLE Calculator, a food and land-use system model, to focus on The Gambia to simulate scenarios for future food demand and increasing domestic food production. We considered the impacts of climate change on crops, the adoption of climate change adaptation techniques, as well as the potential of enhanced fertiliser use and irrigation to boost crop productivity, and assessed whether these measures would be sufficient to meet the projected increase in food demand. Our results indicate that domestic food production on existing cropland will not be sufficient to meet national food demand by 2050, leading to a significant supply–demand gap. However, investments in fertiliser availability and the development of sustainable irrigation infrastructure, coupled with climate change adaptation strategies like the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties and optimised planting dates, could halve this gap. Addressing the remaining gap will require additional strategies, such as increasing imports, expanding cropland, or prioritising the production of domestic food crops over export crops. Given the critical role imports play in The Gambia’s food supply, it is essential to ensure a robust flow of food imports by diversifying partners and addressing regional trade barriers. Our study highlights the urgent need for sustained investment and policy support to enhance domestic food production and food imports to secure sufficient and healthy food supplies amidst growing demand and climate change challenges.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_US
dcterms.available2024-04-26en_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationCarr, T.W.; Addo, F.; Palazzo, A.; Havlik, P.; Pérez-Guzmán, K.; Ali, Z.; Green, R.; Hadida, G.; Segnon, A.C.; Zougmoré, R.; Scheelbeek, P. (2024) Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: Can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply–demand gap?. Food Security 16: p. 691-704. ISSN: 1876-4517en_US
dcterms.extent691-704en_US
dcterms.issued2024-04-26en_US
dcterms.languageenen_US
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0en_US
dcterms.publisherSpringer Science+Business Mediaen_US
dcterms.subjectcrop productionen_US
dcterms.subjectfood systemsen_US
dcterms.subjectclimate change adaptationen_US
dcterms.subjectfood securityen_US
dcterms.subjectdieten_US
dcterms.subjectimportsen_US
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen_US

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