Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: Can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply–demand gap?

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country instituteen
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicineen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysisen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Center for Tropical Agricultureen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Abomey-Calavien
cg.contributor.donorWorld Banken
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden
cg.contributor.initiativeClimate Resilience
cg.coverage.countryGambia
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2GM
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionWestern Africa
cg.coverage.regionSub-Saharan Africa
cg.creator.identifierAmanda Palazzo: 0000-0001-8167-9403en
cg.creator.identifierPetr Havlik: 0000-0001-5551-5085en
cg.creator.identifierZakari Ali: 0000-0002-8129-2230en
cg.creator.identifierAlcade C. Segnon: 0000-0001-9751-120Xen
cg.creator.identifierRobert Zougmore: 0000-0002-6215-4852en
cg.creator.identifierPauline Scheelbeek: 0000-0002-6209-2284en
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-024-01444-1en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn1876-4517en
cg.issue3en
cg.journalFood Securityen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.actionAreaResilient Agrifood Systems
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatAGRICULTUREen
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONen
cg.subject.alliancebiovciatMODELINGen
cg.subject.impactAreaClimate adaptation and mitigation
cg.subject.sdgSDG 2 - Zero hungeren
cg.subject.sdgSDG 13 - Climate actionen
cg.volume16en
dc.contributor.authorCarr, Tony W.en
dc.contributor.authorAddo, Felicityen
dc.contributor.authorPalazzo, Amandaen
dc.contributor.authorHavlik, Petren
dc.contributor.authorPérez-Guzmán, Katyaen
dc.contributor.authorAli, Zakarien
dc.contributor.authorGreen, Rosemaryen
dc.contributor.authorHadida, Genevieveen
dc.contributor.authorSegnon, Alcade C.en
dc.contributor.authorZougmoré, Roberten
dc.contributor.authorScheelbeek, Paulineen
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-21T08:59:01Zen
dc.date.available2024-05-21T08:59:01Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/141961
dc.titleAddressing future food demand in The Gambia: Can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply–demand gap?en
dcterms.abstractWith rising demand for food and the threats posed by climate change, The Gambia faces significant challenges in ensuring sufficient and nutritious food for its population. To address these challenges, there is a need to increase domestic food production while limiting deforestation and land degradation. In this study, we modified the FABLE Calculator, a food and land-use system model, to focus on The Gambia to simulate scenarios for future food demand and increasing domestic food production. We considered the impacts of climate change on crops, the adoption of climate change adaptation techniques, as well as the potential of enhanced fertiliser use and irrigation to boost crop productivity, and assessed whether these measures would be sufficient to meet the projected increase in food demand. Our results indicate that domestic food production on existing cropland will not be sufficient to meet national food demand by 2050, leading to a significant supply–demand gap. However, investments in fertiliser availability and the development of sustainable irrigation infrastructure, coupled with climate change adaptation strategies like the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties and optimised planting dates, could halve this gap. Addressing the remaining gap will require additional strategies, such as increasing imports, expanding cropland, or prioritising the production of domestic food crops over export crops. Given the critical role imports play in The Gambia’s food supply, it is essential to ensure a robust flow of food imports by diversifying partners and addressing regional trade barriers. Our study highlights the urgent need for sustained investment and policy support to enhance domestic food production and food imports to secure sufficient and healthy food supplies amidst growing demand and climate change challenges.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2024-04-26en
dcterms.bibliographicCitationCarr, T.W.; Addo, F.; Palazzo, A.; Havlik, P.; Pérez-Guzmán, K.; Ali, Z.; Green, R.; Hadida, G.; Segnon, A.C.; Zougmoré, R.; Scheelbeek, P. (2024) Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: Can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply–demand gap?. Food Security 16: p. 691-704. ISSN: 1876-4517en
dcterms.extent691-704en
dcterms.issued2024-04-26en
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherSpringer Science+Business Mediaen
dcterms.subjectcrop productionen
dcterms.subjectfood systemsen
dcterms.subjectclimate change adaptationen
dcterms.subjectfood securityen
dcterms.subjectdieten
dcterms.subjectimportsen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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