The modelled costs of adaptation

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR single centreen
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationPaul Watkiss Associatesen
cg.contributor.affiliationEconomic and Social Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationCMCC Foundationen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Washingtonen
cg.contributor.affiliationGlobal Climate Forumen
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Bathen
cg.contributor.affiliationWorld Banken
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Food Policy Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationVrije Universiteit Amsterdamen
cg.contributor.affiliationEcologic Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationLincoln Universityen
cg.contributor.affiliationCGIAR System Organizationen
cg.contributor.donorUnited Nations Environment Programmeen
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden
cg.contributor.initiativeForesight
cg.creator.identifierTimothy B. Sulser: 0000-0001-7128-5283
cg.howPublishedGrey Literatureen
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/43796en
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Systems Transformation - Transformation Strategies
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - IMPACT model
cg.identifier.publicationRankNot ranked
cg.number2023en
cg.placeNairobi, Kenyaen
cg.reviewStatusInternal Reviewen
cg.subject.actionAreaSystems Transformation
cg.subject.impactAreaPoverty reduction, livelihoods and jobs
cg.subject.impactPlatformPoverty Reduction, Livelihoods and Jobs
dc.contributor.authorWatkiss, Paulen
dc.contributor.authorBruin, Kelly deen
dc.contributor.authorDasgupta, Shouroen
dc.contributor.authorEbi, Kristieen
dc.contributor.authorHinkel, Jochenen
dc.contributor.authorHunt, Alistairen
dc.contributor.authorLincke, Danielen
dc.contributor.authorRozenberg, Julieen
dc.contributor.authorSayer, Pieteren
dc.contributor.authorShariq, Ammaraen
dc.contributor.authorSulser, Timothy B.en
dc.contributor.authorTiggeloven, Timothyen
dc.contributor.authorTröltzsch, Jennyen
dc.contributor.authorWard, Philipen
dc.contributor.authorWreford, Anitaen
dc.date.accessioned2023-12-04T16:12:50Zen
dc.date.available2023-12-04T16:12:50Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/134957
dc.titleThe modelled costs of adaptationen
dcterms.abstractKey messages ▶ The Adaptation Finance Gap (AFG) Update 2023 has undertaken an updated modelling assessment of the cost of adaptation for developing countries. This analysis has used a suite of global sector assessment models, complemented by new analysis in additional sectors. ▶ The update analysis estimates the plausible central costs of adaptation at approximately US$240 billion per year this decade (up to 2030), with a range of US$130–415 billion per year. The central estimate is equivalent to 0.56 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) (2021) for all developing countries (or approximately US$33 per capita/per year). ▶ The highest adaptation costs are for river flood protection, infrastructure and coastal protection, and for the regions of East Asia and the Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean. ▶ The highest absolute costs are for the upper- and lower-middle-income countries. However, when expressed as a percentage of GDP, adaptation costs are much higher for low-income countries (3.5 per cent) than for lower-middle-income (0.7 per cent) and upper-middle-income (0.5 per cent) countries. ▶ The costs for lower-income and lower-middle-income countries are estimated at US$76 billion per year this decade: the costs for small island developing States (SIDS) alone are estimated at US$4.7 billion per year (0.7 per cent of their GDP) and for least developed countries (LDCs) at US$25 billion per year (2 per cent of their GDP). ▶ The modelled costs of adaptation are estimated to increase significantly by 2050, especially for high-warming scenarios. ▶ These updated costs show a significant increase compared to previous similar studies. This not only reflects the more negative impacts of climate change reported in the literature (for the sectors previously modelled), but also a wider range of risks and sectors.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceAcademicsen
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.available2023-11-01
dcterms.bibliographicCitationWatkiss, P; K de Bruin; S Dasgupta; K Ebi; J Hinkel; A Hunt; D Lincke; J Rozenberg; P Sayer; A Shariq; TB Sulser; T Tiggeloven; J Tröltzsch; P Ward; A Wreford. 2023. Chapter 2. The modelled costs of adaptation. In The Adaptation Finance Gap Update 2023 for UNEP's Adaptation Gap Report 2023: Underfinanced. Underprepared. Inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptation leaves world exposed. UNEP. Nairobi. https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/43796en
dcterms.extent9-27en
dcterms.isPartOfAdaptation Gap Reporten
dcterms.issued2023
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserved
dcterms.publisherUnited Nations Environment Programmeen
dcterms.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/150391en
dcterms.relationhttps://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294165en
dcterms.replaceshttps://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll5/id/8955en
dcterms.subjectadaptationen
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectclimate change adaptationen
dcterms.subjectdeveloping countriesen
dcterms.subjectestimated costsen
dcterms.subjectfinanceen
dcterms.subjectinfrastructureen
dcterms.typeReport

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