Impacts of intensifying or expanding cereal cropping in sub‐Saharan Africa on greenhouse gas emissions and food security

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cg.contributor.affiliationWageningen University & Researchen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.crpClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Securityen
cg.contributor.crpForests, Trees and Agroforestryen
cg.coverage.countryBurkina Fasoen
cg.coverage.countryMalien
cg.coverage.countryGhanaen
cg.coverage.countryKenyaen
cg.coverage.countryEthiopiaen
cg.coverage.countryNigeren
cg.coverage.countryNigeriaen
cg.coverage.countryZambiaen
cg.coverage.countryTanzaniaen
cg.coverage.countryUgandaen
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2BFen
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2MLen
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2GHen
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2KEen
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2ETen
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2NEen
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2NGen
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2ZMen
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2TZen
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2UGen
cg.coverage.regionWestern Africaen
cg.coverage.regionEastern Africaen
cg.coverage.regionMiddle Africaen
cg.coverage.regionNorthern Africaen
cg.creator.identifierRenske Hijbeek: 0000-0001-8214-9121en
cg.creator.identifierDawit Solomon: 0000-0002-6839-6801en
cg.creator.identifierMartin van Ittersum: 0000-0001-8611-6781en
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14783en
cg.identifier.projectCCAFS: PII-FP3_CropNutrientGapen
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn1354-1013en
cg.issue11en
cg.journalGlobal Change Biologyen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.ccafsLOW EMISSIONS DEVELOPMENTen
cg.subject.ciforCLIMATE CHANGEen
cg.subject.ciforCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND REDD+en
cg.volume25en
dc.contributor.authorLoon, Marloes P. vanen
dc.contributor.authorHijbeek, Renskeen
dc.contributor.authorBerge, Hein F.M. tenen
dc.contributor.authorSy, Veronique deen
dc.contributor.authorBroeke, Guus A. tenen
dc.contributor.authorSolomon, Dawiten
dc.contributor.authorIttersum, Martin K. vanen
dc.date.accessioned2019-09-19T13:23:36Zen
dc.date.available2019-09-19T13:23:36Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/103685
dc.titleImpacts of intensifying or expanding cereal cropping in sub‐Saharan Africa on greenhouse gas emissions and food securityen
dcterms.abstractCropping is responsible for substantial emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) worldwide through the use of fertilizers and through expansion of agricultural land and associated carbon losses. Especially in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), GHG emissions from these processes might increase steeply in coming decades, due to tripling demand for food until 2050 to match the steep population growth. This study assesses the impact of achieving cereal self‐sufficiency by the year 2050 for 10 SSA countries on GHG emissions related to different scenarios of increasing cereal production, ranging from intensifying production to agricultural area expansion. We also assessed different nutrient management variants in the intensification. Our analysis revealed that irrespective of intensification or extensification, GHG emissions of the 10 countries jointly are at least 50% higher in 2050 than in 2015. Intensification will come, depending on the nutrient use efficiency achieved, with large increases in nutrient inputs and associated GHG emissions. However, matching food demand through conversion of forest and grasslands to cereal area likely results in much higher GHG emissions. Moreover, many countries lack enough suitable land for cereal expansion to match food demand. In addition, we analysed the uncertainty in our GHG estimates and found that it is caused primarily by uncertainty in the IPCC Tier 1 coefficient for direct N2O emissions, and by the agronomic nitrogen use efficiency (N‐AE). In conclusion, intensification scenarios are clearly superior to expansion scenarios in terms of climate change mitigation, but only if current N‐AE is increased to levels commonly achieved in, for example, the United States, and which have been demonstrated to be feasible in some locations in SSA. As such, intensifying cereal production with good agronomy and nutrient management is essential to moderate inevitable increases in GHG emissions. Sustainably increasing crop production in SSA is therefore a daunting challenge in the coming decades.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.available2019-08-31en
dcterms.bibliographicCitationvan Loon, M. P., Hijbeek, R., ten Berge, H. F. M., De Sy, V., ten Broeke, G. A., Solomon, D., & van Ittersum, M. K. (2019). Impacts of intensifying or expanding cereal cropping in sub‐Saharan Africa on greenhouse gas emissions and food security. In Global Change Biology (Vol. 25, Issue 11, pp. 3720–3730). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14783en
dcterms.extentp. 3720-3730en
dcterms.issued2019-11en
dcterms.languageenen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0en
dcterms.publisherWileyen
dcterms.replaceshttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/112507en
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectagricultureen
dcterms.subjectfood securityen
dcterms.subjectgreenhouse gas emissionsen
dcterms.subjectgreenhouse gasesen
dcterms.subjectintensificationen
dcterms.subjectextensificationen
dcterms.subjectcropsen
dcterms.subjectcrop productionen
dcterms.subjectemissionen
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen

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