Nepal: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

Simple item page
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR single centreen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Food Policy Research Instituteen_US
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden_US
cg.contributor.donorUnited States Agency for International Developmenten_US
cg.contributor.initiativeForesighten_US
cg.coverage.countryNepalen_US
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2NPen_US
cg.coverage.regionAsiaen_US
cg.coverage.regionSouthern Asiaen_US
cg.creator.identifierAskar Mukashov: 0000-0002-5171-7760en_US
cg.creator.identifierJames Thurlow: 0000-0003-3414-374Xen_US
cg.creator.identifierPaul Dorosh: 0000-0001-6049-6018en_US
cg.howPublishedGrey Literatureen_US
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Feed the Futureen_US
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Foresight and Policy Modeling Uniten_US
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Economywide Risk Assessmenten_US
cg.identifier.publicationRankNot rankeden_US
cg.number5en_US
cg.placeWashington, DCen_US
cg.reviewStatusInternal Reviewen_US
cg.subject.actionAreaSystems Transformationen_US
dc.contributor.authorMukashov, Askaren_US
dc.contributor.authorThurlow, Jamesen_US
dc.contributor.authorDorosh, Paul A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorJones, Eleanoren_US
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-08T22:43:59Zen_US
dc.date.available2025-01-08T22:43:59Zen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168723en_US
dc.titleNepal: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocksen_US
dcterms.abstractThis study explores Nepal’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. Our analysis is based on an empirically based estimation of the probability distribution of these shocks and a machine learning summary of several thousand simulations of their impacts using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal. In this way, we are able to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings indicate that, given the very high import intensity of the economy, world market price and foreign exchange (FX) flow volatility have the largest impacts on household welfare (consumption, poverty and undernourishment). However, domestic yield volatility, especially cereal yield volatility, is the most important risk to Nepal’s GDP. However, Overall, these findings suggest that risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors, can have major benefits for Nepal’s households and the overall economy.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_US
dcterms.audienceDevelopment Practitionersen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationMukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; and Jones, Eleanor. 2024. Nepal: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 5. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168723en_US
dcterms.extent15 p.en_US
dcterms.isPartOfEconomywide Risk Assessment Country Briefen_US
dcterms.issued2024-12-30en_US
dcterms.languageenen_US
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0en_US
dcterms.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Instituteen_US
dcterms.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168180en_US
dcterms.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168167en_US
dcterms.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168183en_US
dcterms.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/168174en_US
dcterms.subjectrisk assessmenten_US
dcterms.subjectclimateen_US
dcterms.subjectshocken_US
dcterms.subjecteconomic shocken_US
dcterms.subjectmarket pricesen_US
dcterms.subjectcomputable general equilibrium modelsen_US
dcterms.subjectmachine learningen_US
dcterms.subjectagricultureen_US
dcterms.subjectcrop yielden_US
dcterms.typeBriefen_US

Files

Original bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Nepal Risk Profile Brief Draft_updated.pdf
Size:
733.49 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Report
Download

License bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.75 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

IFPRI Briefs
CGIAR Initiative on Foresight