Improving performance of index insurance using crop models and phenological monitoring
| cg.authorship.types | CGIAR and advanced research institute | en |
| cg.authorship.types | CGIAR single centre | en |
| cg.authorship.types | CGIAR and developing country institute | en |
| cg.contributor.affiliation | International Food Policy Research Institute | en |
| cg.contributor.affiliation | Ghent University | en |
| cg.contributor.affiliation | University of Manchester | en |
| cg.contributor.crp | Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security | |
| cg.contributor.crp | Policies, Institutions, and Markets | |
| cg.contributor.donor | Natural Environment Research Council, United Kingdom | en |
| cg.contributor.donor | Economic and Social Research Council, United Kingdom | en |
| cg.contributor.donor | Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, United Kingdom | en |
| cg.contributor.donor | Government of India | en |
| cg.coverage.country | India | |
| cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2 | IN | |
| cg.coverage.region | Asia | |
| cg.coverage.region | Southern Asia | |
| cg.creator.identifier | Mehdi H. Afshar: 0000-0002-4411-3299 | |
| cg.creator.identifier | Thomas Higginbottom: 0000-0003-1150-1444 | |
| cg.creator.identifier | Ben Parkes: 0000-0002-5936-8331 | |
| cg.creator.identifier | Koen Hufkens: 0000-0002-5070-8109 | |
| cg.creator.identifier | Sanjay Mansabdar: 0000-0001-6166-4845 | |
| cg.creator.identifier | Francisco Ceballos: 0000-0001-8699-5114 | |
| cg.creator.identifier | Berber Kramer: 0000-0001-7644-6613 | |
| cg.identifier.project | IFPRI - Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division | |
| cg.identifier.project | IFPRI - Picture-Based Insurance | |
| cg.identifier.publicationRank | Not ranked | |
| cg.number | 337 | en |
| cg.place | Wageningen, The Netherlands | en |
| cg.reviewStatus | Internal Review | en |
| cg.subject.ccafs | CLIMATE SERVICES AND SAFETY NETS | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Afshar, Mehdi H | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Foster, Timothy | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Higginbottom, Thomas P | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Parkes, Ben | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Hufkens, Koen | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Mansabdar, Sanjay | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Ceballos, Francisco | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Kramer, Berber | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-01-05T15:24:22Z | en |
| dc.date.available | 2021-01-05T15:24:22Z | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/110712 | |
| dc.title | Improving performance of index insurance using crop models and phenological monitoring | en |
| dcterms.abstract | Extreme weather events cause considerable damage to livelihoods of smallholder farmers globally. Whilst index insurance can help farmers cope with the financial consequences of extreme weather, a major challenge for index insurance is basis risk, where insurance payouts correlate poorly with actual crop losses. We analyze to what extent the use of crop simulation models and crop phenology monitoring can reduce basis risk in index insurance. Using a biophysical process-based crop model (APSIM) applied for rice producers in Odisha, India, we simulate a synthetic yield dataset to train non-parametric statistical models to predict rice yields as a function of meteorological and phenological conditions. We find that the performance of statistical yield models depends on whether meteorological or phenological conditions are used as predictors, and whether one aggregates these predictors by season or crop growth stage. Validating the preferred statistical model with observed yield data, we find that the model explains around 54% of the variance in rice yields at the village cluster (Gram Panchayat) level, outperforming vegetation index-based models that were trained directly on the observed yield data. Our methods and findings can guide efforts to design smart phenology-based index insurance and target yield monitoring resources in smallholder farming environments. | en |
| dcterms.accessRights | Open Access | |
| dcterms.audience | Scientists | en |
| dcterms.audience | Academics | en |
| dcterms.audience | CGIAR | en |
| dcterms.audience | Development Practitioners | en |
| dcterms.audience | Extension | en |
| dcterms.audience | Policy Makers | en |
| dcterms.bibliographicCitation | Afshar MH, Foster T, Higginbottom TP, Parkes B, Hufkens K, Mansabdar S, Ceballos F, Kramer B. 2020. Improving performance of index insurance using crop models and phenological monitoring. CCAFS Working Paper no. 337. Wageningen, the Netherlands: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). | en |
| dcterms.extent | 38 p. | en |
| dcterms.isPartOf | CCAFS Working Paper | en |
| dcterms.issued | 2020-12-31 | |
| dcterms.language | en | |
| dcterms.license | CC-BY-NC-4.0 | |
| dcterms.publisher | CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security | en |
| dcterms.relation | https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13050924 | en |
| dcterms.relation | https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134941 | en |
| dcterms.replaces | https://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll5/id/7587 | en |
| dcterms.subject | capacity development | en |
| dcterms.subject | crop yield | en |
| dcterms.subject | crop production | en |
| dcterms.subject | agriculture | en |
| dcterms.subject | food security | en |
| dcterms.subject | crop modelling | en |
| dcterms.subject | climate change | en |
| dcterms.type | Working Paper |