Building Ethiopia’s food security resilience to climate and hydrological change
| cg.authorship.types | CGIAR single centre | en |
| cg.authorship.types | CGIAR and advanced research institute | en |
| cg.contributor.affiliation | Newcastle University | en |
| cg.contributor.affiliation | International Food Policy Research Institute | en |
| cg.contributor.affiliation | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | en |
| cg.contributor.affiliation | University of Oxford | en |
| cg.contributor.donor | UK Research and Innovation | en |
| cg.contributor.donor | European Union | en |
| cg.contributor.donor | Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | en |
| cg.contributor.donor | CGIAR Trust Fund | en |
| cg.contributor.initiative | Foresight | |
| cg.contributor.programAccelerator | Policy Innovations | |
| cg.coverage.country | Ethiopia | |
| cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2 | ET | |
| cg.coverage.region | Africa | |
| cg.coverage.region | Sub-Saharan Africa | |
| cg.coverage.region | Eastern Africa | |
| cg.creator.identifier | Timothy Thomas: 0000-0002-7951-8157 | en |
| cg.creator.identifier | Jawoo Koo: 0000-0003-3424-9229 | en |
| cg.howPublished | Formally Published | en |
| cg.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1088/2976-601x/ad99dd | en |
| cg.identifier.project | IFPRI - Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit | en |
| cg.identifier.publicationRank | Not ranked | en |
| cg.issn | 2976-601X | en |
| cg.issue | 1 | en |
| cg.journal | Environmental Research: Food Systems | en |
| cg.reviewStatus | Peer Review | en |
| cg.subject.actionArea | Systems Transformation | |
| cg.subject.impactArea | Climate adaptation and mitigation | |
| cg.subject.sdg | SDG 13 - Climate action | en |
| cg.volume | 2 | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Murgatroyd, Anna | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Thomas, Timothy S. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Koo, Jawoo | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Strzepek, Kenneth M. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Hall, Jim | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-01-24T19:31:45Z | en |
| dc.date.available | 2025-01-24T19:31:45Z | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169868 | |
| dc.title | Building Ethiopia’s food security resilience to climate and hydrological change | en |
| dcterms.abstract | Historically Ethiopia's food security has been sensitive to climatic variability, but changes in future weather and climate could lead to overall reductions and increased variability in agricultural production, without further adaptation. We present an integrated modelling assessment framework which combines climate, crop, and hydrological modelling to quantify future risks to Ethiopia's food security. We explore the impacts of 2°C and higher climate change scenarios on water availability and crop yields and simulate how future climate shocks may impact Ethiopia's food. We consider three adaptations to agricultural management practices (improved seed varieties, increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and supplementary irrigation) and quantify their effectiveness in enhancing the resilience of Ethiopia's food system to climate and hydrological change by 2050. Results show that, without policy intervention, climate change creates a risk of declining Meher season crop yields across Ethiopia. Under the worst climate change scenario, teff (−12.0%), barley (−6.7%), and wheat (−4.4%) are projected to have the largest decline in average yields, whilst maize (−0.1%) and sorghum (+0.9%) yields are less impacted thanks to more favourable growing conditions. However, the results also indicate that the adaptation options have a bigger beneficial effect than the climate impact. Of the policies evaluated, improved seeds have a relatively greater effect than increased fertilizer use. Supplementary irrigation could help to mitigate increases in crop water requirements under warmer climate conditions and is most effective in drought prone basins and for drought-vulnerable crops. Overall, the results show that locally relevant agricultural policies are necessary to build Ethiopia's food system resilience to climate and hydrological change by the mid-century. | en |
| dcterms.accessRights | Open Access | |
| dcterms.audience | Academics | en |
| dcterms.available | 2024-12-17 | en |
| dcterms.bibliographicCitation | Murgatroyd, Anna; Thomas, Timothy S.; Koo, Jawoo; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; and Hall, Jim. 2025. Building Ethiopia’s food security resilience to climate and hydrological change. Environmental Research: Food Systems 2(1): 015008. https://doi.org/10.1088/2976-601X/ad99dd | en |
| dcterms.issued | 2025-03 | en |
| dcterms.language | en | |
| dcterms.license | CC-BY-4.0 | |
| dcterms.publisher | IOP Publishing | en |
| dcterms.subject | food security | en |
| dcterms.subject | resilience | en |
| dcterms.subject | climate change | en |
| dcterms.subject | climate resilience | en |
| dcterms.subject | hydrological cycle | en |
| dcterms.type | Journal Article |
Files
License bundle
1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
- Name:
- license.txt
- Size:
- 1.75 KB
- Format:
- Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
- Description: