Ex-ante impact of peste des petits ruminants control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen
cg.contributor.affiliationCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australiaen
cg.contributor.affiliationCentre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique Pour le Développementen
cg.contributor.affiliationInstitute of Virology and Immunology, Switzerlanden
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Bernen
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Water Management Instituteen
cg.contributor.crpLivestock
cg.contributor.donorInternational Fund for Agricultural Developmenten
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Funden
cg.contributor.initiativeSustainable Animal Productivity
cg.coverage.countrySenegal
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2SN
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionWestern Africa
cg.creator.identifierJoshua Aboah: 0000-0003-1000-2109en
cg.creator.identifierPacem Kotchofa: 0000-0002-1640-8807en
cg.creator.identifierMichel Dione: 0000-0001-7812-5776en
cg.creator.identifierBarbara Wieland: 0000-0003-4020-9186en
cg.creator.identifierAbworo: 0000-0003-0689-823Xen
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287386en
cg.isijournalISI Journalen
cg.issn1932-6203en
cg.issue7en
cg.journalPLOS ONEen
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen
cg.subject.actionAreaResilient Agrifood Systems
cg.subject.ilriANIMAL DISEASESen
cg.subject.ilriDISEASE CONTROLen
cg.subject.ilriGOATSen
cg.subject.ilriIMPACT ASSESSMENTen
cg.subject.ilriSHEEPen
cg.subject.ilriSMALL RUMINANTSen
cg.subject.impactAreaPoverty reduction, livelihoods and jobs
cg.subject.sdgSDG 2 - Zero hungeren
cg.volume18en
dc.contributor.authorAboah, Joshuaen
dc.contributor.authorApolloni, A.en
dc.contributor.authorDuboz, R.en
dc.contributor.authorWieland, Barbaraen
dc.contributor.authorKotchofa, Pacemen
dc.contributor.authorOkoth, Edward A.en
dc.contributor.authorDione, Michel M.en
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-07T12:53:33Zen
dc.date.available2023-07-07T12:53:33Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/131037
dc.titleEx-ante impact of peste des petits ruminants control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approachen
dcterms.abstractVaccination is considered as the main tool for the Global Control and Eradication Strategy for peste des petits ruminants (PPR), and the efficacity of the PPR-vaccine in conferring long-life immunity has been established. Despite this, previous studies asserted that vaccination can be expensive and consequently, the effectiveness of disease control may not necessarily translate to overall profit for farmers. Also, the consequences of PPR control on socioeconomic indicators like food and nutrition security at a macro-national level have not been explored thoroughly. Therefore, this study seeks to assess ex-ante the impact of PPR control strategies on farm-level profitability and the socioeconomic consequences concerning food and nutrition security at a national level in Senegal. A bi-level system dynamics model, compartmentalised into five modules consisting of integrated production-epidemiological, economics, disease control, marketing, and policy modules, was developed with the STELLA Architect software, validated, and simulated for 30 years at a weekly timestep. The model was parameterised with data from household surveys from pastoral areas in Northern Senegal and relevant existing data. Nine vaccination scenarios were examined considering different vaccination parameters (vaccination coverage, vaccine wastage, and the provision of government subsidies). The findings indicate that compared to a no-vaccination scenario, all the vaccination scenarios for both 26.5% (actual vaccination coverage) and 70% (expected vaccination coverage) resulted in statistically significant differences in the gross margin earnings and the potential per capita consumption for the supply of mutton and goat meat. At the prevailing vaccination coverage (with or without the provision of government subsidies), farm households will earn an average gross margin of $69.43 (annually) more than without vaccination, and the average per capita consumption for mutton and goat meat will increase by 1.13kg/person/year. When the vaccination coverage is increased to the prescribed threshold for PPR eradication (i.e., 70%), with or without the provision of government subsidies, the average gross margin earnings would be $72.23 annually and the per capita consumption will increase by 1.23kg/person/year compared to the baseline (without vaccination). This study’s findings offer an empirical justification for a sustainable approach to PPR eradication. The information on the socioeconomic benefits of vaccination can be promoted via sensitization campaigns to stimulate farmers’ uptake of the practice. This study can inform investment in PPR control.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceAcademicsen
dcterms.audiencePolicy Makersen
dcterms.audienceScientistsen
dcterms.available2023-07-05en
dcterms.bibliographicCitationAboah, J., Apolloni, A., Duboz, R., Wieland, B., Kotchofa, P., Okoth, E. and Dione, M. 2023. Ex-ante impact of peste des petits ruminants control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach. PLOS ONE 18(7): e0287386.en
dcterms.extente0287386en
dcterms.issued2023-07-05en
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCC-BY-4.0
dcterms.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen
dcterms.subjectanimal diseasesen
dcterms.subjectpest of small ruminantsen
dcterms.subjectdisease controlen
dcterms.subjectimpact assessmenten
dcterms.subjectsheepen
dcterms.subjectgoatsen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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