Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments

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cg.authorship.typesCGIAR multi-centre
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Food Policy Research Institute
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Center for Tropical Agriculture
cg.contributor.affiliationBioversity International
cg.contributor.donorCGIAR Trust Fund
cg.contributor.initiativeForesight
cg.contributor.programAcceleratorPolicy Innovations
cg.creator.identifierAthanasios Petsakos: 0000-0003-0224-4087
cg.creator.identifierCarlo Montes: 0000-0003-4828-5589
cg.creator.identifierJosé B. Falck-Zepeda: 0000-0002-8604-7154
cg.creator.identifierDiego Pequeno: 0000-0002-5463-3319
cg.creator.identifierBenjamin Schiek: 0000-0002-2933-793X
cg.creator.identifierElisabetta Gotor: 0000-0003-0533-3077
cg.howPublishedFormally Published
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-025-01549-1
cg.identifier.projectIFPRI - Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit
cg.identifier.publicationRankB
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.issn1876-4517
cg.journalFood Security
cg.reviewStatusPeer Review
cg.subject.impactAreaClimate adaptation and mitigation
cg.subject.impactAreaPoverty reduction, livelihoods and jobs
dc.contributor.authorPetsakos, Athanasios
dc.contributor.authorMontes, Carlo
dc.contributor.authorFalck-Zepeda, José
dc.contributor.authorPequeno, Diego Noleto Luz
dc.contributor.authorSchiek, Benjamin
dc.contributor.authorGotor, Elisabetta
dc.date.accessioned2025-06-03T13:08:28Z
dc.date.available2025-06-03T13:08:28Z
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/174926
dc.titleBridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessmentsen
dcterms.abstractRegional and global economic models, combined with spatially distributed crop growth simulation models and hydrology models that simulate water supply and demand across sectors (among others), represent the most widely used quantitative approach for addressing questions related to food security under alternative future scenarios (e.g., for a recent reference, van Dijk et al., 2021). These integrated foresight modelling approaches, hereinafter referred to as “Agricultural Integrated Assessment Models” (AIAMs), provide a macro-level view of the global food system, encompassing, directly or indirectly, implicitly or explicitly, components outlined in contemporary definitions (HLPE, 2017). Due to the complex nature of modelling the effects of crop pests and pathogens (P&P) on crop performances, the use of AIAMs in P&P-related analyses has been scant and limited to hypothetical epidemics caused by specific P&Ps affecting a single crop (Godfray et al., 2016; Petsakos et al., 2023). This limitation, also identified in the ex-ante assessment of the pesticide reduction objective of the European Common Agricultural Policy (Barreiro-Hurle et al., 2021), suggests that AIAMs overlook a critical element – one that has historically contributed to, or even triggered, famine events (Padmanabhan, 1973; Woodham-Smith, 1992). Given the importance of AIAMs in informing policies and shaping agricultural decisions at national and global scales (e.g., Barreiro-Hurle et al., 2021; Fuglie et al., 2022), it is necessary to adress this gap.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.audienceScientists
dcterms.available2025-05-24
dcterms.bibliographicCitationPetsakos, Athanasios; Montes, Carlo; Falck-Zepeda, José; Pequeno, Diego Noleto Luz; Schiek, Benjamin; and Gotor, Elisabetta. Bridging the gap: Integrating crop pests and pathogens into agricultural foresight models for food security assessments. Food Security. Article in press. First published online May 24, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-025-01549-1
dcterms.issued2025
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserved
dcterms.publisherSpringer
dcterms.subjectagriculture
dcterms.subjecteconomics
dcterms.subjectfood security
dcterms.subjectpathogens
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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